Juan Brignardello Vela
Juan Brignardello, asesor de seguros, se especializa en brindar asesoramiento y gestión comercial en el ámbito de seguros y reclamaciones por siniestros para destacadas empresas en el mercado peruano e internacional.
Economía y Finanzas 11.01.2024
Economists: Celebration today, concern tomorrow in the US. Why? Economists celebrate short-term economic growth but worry about long-term problems.
The economy is a social science that studies human behavior in relation to the production, distribution, consumption, and exchange of goods and services. Economists use various tools to study the economy, such as economic theory, statistics, and mathematical models. Economic theory provides a conceptual framework for understanding human behavior in the economic sphere, while statistics are used to collect and analyze economic data. Mathematical models are used to predict future economic behavior.
Economics is an important science because it can help us understand how the world works and how we can make better economic decisions. Economics is used to inform government policies, business decisions, and personal choices. However, economics is also a complex science with many interconnected factors, making it difficult to accurately predict the outcomes of economic policies. Additionally, economics is often subject to ideological debates, which can lead to economists' opinions being perceived as biased. Moreover, economics is often oversimplified in the media, leading to confusion and misinformation.
Politics tends to polarize into different ideologies such as liberalism, progressivism, populism, or conservatism. Each of these ideologies has a particular view of the economy and chooses theories that support its ideas. This results in liberals advocating for a market economy, progressives advocating for a social economy, populists advocating for a national economy, and conservatives advocating for a traditional economy. Each group has their favorite economist whom they defend as a doctrine of faith.
But economics is not a religion; it is a science. And as such, it should be objective, rigorous, and evidence-based. Economics should not serve politics but the pursuit of truth. Economics should not be a tool for propaganda but a tool for analysis. Economics should not be a source of conflict but a source of solutions.
However, economics is often distorted by politics. Political groups use economics to justify their interests, manipulate public opinion, and discredit their adversaries. Political groups see in economics what they want to see, not what it truly is. And when the economy does not meet their forecasts, the public blames economic science. When in reality, the fault lies with the political groups speaking on behalf of "economics" while promoting their biases and prejudices.
I believe economics and politics should be separate, like water and oil. I believe economics should be independent, critical, and pluralistic. I believe politics should be respectful, honest, and open to dialogue. I believe economics and politics should collaborate but not be confused. I believe economics and politics should serve the common good, not personal interests.
Now, economists often base their recommendations on economic models, which can be inaccurate or incomplete. In most cases, these models are based on statistics and probabilities drawn from the past. And they often fail in exceptional and improbable contexts. A recent example is the recession that never came. The majority of economists predicted a recession for 2023 due to the trade war and other factors. However, the recession never happened. On the contrary, the US economy grew, surpassing expectations. This dealt a blow to economists' credibility as forecasters.
Now, at their annual meeting, according to The Wall Street Journal, economists have mixed emotions. On one hand, there is relief due to the good short-term performance of the economy. On the other hand, there is concern about long-term problems such as inequality, debt, climate change, and political instability. These problems have deep-rooted causes like demographic changes, technological disruptions, and global uncertainties. They require complex solutions such as sustainable fiscal policies, investments in innovation and adaptation, and international cooperation. Economists conclude that proactive action is needed to ensure a prosperous economic future.
What can we learn from this situation? I believe we can learn that economics is a valuable but limited science. That economists are experts but also human. That economic models are useful but fallible. That economics is a science but also an art. That economics is a science but also an opinion.
Therefore, I invite the reader not to be swayed by economic predictions but to question them. Not to settle for economic simplifications but to seek complexity. Not to be influenced by economic ideologies but to think for themselves. Not to be discouraged by economic problems but to seek solutions. Not to be deceived by traditional economics but to explore alternative economics.
Cryptocurrencies and skepticism: a necessary pair.
Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies are a technological revolution that offers us new ways to exchange value in a decentralized, secure, and transparent manner. But they are also a temptation to fall into dogmatism, credulity, and conformity.
Social media is filled with supposed experts telling us what to do with our cryptocurrencies, what to buy, what to sell, what to think. Some are economists, others are not. Some are honest, others are not. Some are wise, others are not. But they all have an agenda, an interest, an ideology.
We must not blindly follow them but question them critically. We must not adopt their ideas but form our own. We must not belong to their groups but be independent. We must not seek their clicks but our own truth.
Doubt is the beginning of knowledge. Economists make mistakes because we all make mistakes. Cryptocurrencies are an opportunity to learn, to experiment, to innovate. But they are also a responsibility to be skeptical, rational, and free.
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