Economic growth in Peru: sectors on the rise and others in decline.

The economic landscape in Peru presents a framework of contrasts, according to the latest reports from the National Institute of Statistics and Informatics (INEI) and statements from the head of the Ministry of Economy and Finance (MEF), José Arista. While the country's economy has shown a remarkable growth of 3.93% in November 2024, marking eight consecutive months of expansion, there are sectors that are still in decline, highlighting a divergence in economic performance.

Arista expressed satisfaction with the recent results, noting that this growth is the most significant since July 2024. The positive dynamics have been primarily driven by sectors such as fishing and primary manufacturing. Fishing experienced a growth of 17.6%, linked to the start of the second anchovy fishing season in the north-central region of the country. Meanwhile, primary manufacturing increased a notable 18.1%. This boost in economic activity is a hopeful sign, although not all sectors have managed to follow this upward path.

The agricultural sector also contributed positively, with a growth of 12.4%, thanks to increased harvests aimed at the external market, especially in products like blueberries. This success in agriculture is a bright spot in an environment where other industries face significant challenges. "The growth of agriculture is good because we have a surplus in our trade balance of US$2 billion a year," emphasized Arista, which in turn helps maintain dollar stability and increase international reserves.

However, the situation is not as encouraging for all sectors. Mining, a traditional pillar of the Peruvian economy, reported a decline of 4% compared to the same month last year. Arista attributed this decrease to many mines being under maintenance, which has affected their production and, consequently, their contribution to national economic growth. This fact highlights the vulnerability of the mining sector to operational factors that can destabilize its performance.

Even more concerning is the performance of the financial and insurance sector, which has been in the red throughout the year. This sector, crucial for financial intermediation and access to credit, is facing a real interest rate at its highest level in two decades. Arista did not hesitate to point out that this situation has impacted the credit market, affecting the availability of financing for both businesses and consumers.

The high interest rate has been a recurring theme in economic discussions, generating concern among market players. Many analysts suggest that this situation could limit investment and growth in the real sector, which in turn could hinder the economic momentum achieved in other areas. The interconnection between financial and productive sectors is evident, and monetary policy decisions will be key to determining the immediate future.

Despite these challenges, the head of the MEF expressed optimism about the potential of the Peruvian economy. The surplus in the balance of payments and the increase in international reserves, which reach US$82.192 billion, are signs of an economy that, despite turbulence, has solid fundamentals. This surplus provides a cushion that can help mitigate the impact of sectoral crises and maintain macroeconomic stability.

The uncertainty in the global landscape and the effects of internal policy will remain factors to consider in the coming months. Arista reiterated the importance of maintaining a positive economic cycle, and although current data is encouraging, the country must be prepared to face the challenges arising from declining sectors. The government's responsiveness and the policies adopted regarding interest rates will be decisive in the near future.

In conclusion, Peru finds itself at a crossroads, where growth in certain sectors contrasts with stagnation in others. The decisions made in the short term will be crucial to ensure that the economy continues on its upward trajectory. Collaboration between the public and private sectors, as well as responsible economic policy, will be essential to foster an environment where all sectors can thrive and contribute to the well-being of the country.