Ethiopia's Earthquake Crisis: GERD Concerns Rise Amid Humanitarian Emergency

The recent seismic activity in Ethiopia has raised alarms across the region, particularly concerning the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). Since December 22, 2023, a series of earthquakes, including a significant 8.1 magnitude quake today, have caused the evacuation of over 80,000 residents in the Afar, Oromia, and Amhara regions, as fears of volcanic eruptions loom following the emergence of smoke from the Dofen shield volcano. The Ethiopian Red Cross Society has reported that approximately 81,750 individuals have been affected, leading to pressing needs for emergency shelter, food assistance, and clean water in the impacted areas. Despite these alarming developments, Sudanese geoscientists are attempting to allay concerns regarding the risk to the GERD, which has become a focal point of anxiety for neighboring Sudan and Egypt. According to engineer Abdelkarim El Amin, who specializes in surveying and earth sciences, the earthquakes have occurred more than 100 kilometers away from the dam. In an interview with Dabanga, he emphasized that the GERD has been engineered to withstand seismic events, even when at full capacity. He added that the dam's location is strategically chosen, having undergone extensive geological studies prior to construction. El Amin did address worries regarding the reservoir's low water levels, speculating that they could be due to a leak in the lake bed. However, he reiterated that the likelihood of such a condition affecting the dam's structural integrity is minimal. "What is important is that the area where the GERD is built is far from the earthquake zone in eastern Ethiopia," he said. The concern surrounding the dam is not merely an engineering issue but also a security matter. While the chances of a catastrophic failure due to seismic activity appear slim, the implications of even a partial collapse could be dire for Sudan and Egypt. El Amin outlined a worst-case scenario where flooding could devastate vast areas along the Blue Nile basin, affecting numerous facilities, including key dams in Sudan. In light of these potential threats, El Amin advocates for a collaborative approach among scientists and experts to address the environmental impact of the GERD comprehensively. He stresses the need to formulate solutions that prioritize water resource management without the influence of political agendas. As the region grapples with the aftermath of these earthquakes, the focus shifts not only to immediate humanitarian needs but also to the long-term implications for water management and environmental stability. The situation remains fluid, and while the GERD stands resilient for the moment, the necessity for continued monitoring and cooperative dialogue among the Nile Basin countries is more pressing than ever.