Axial Seamount on Eruption Watch: Scientists Anticipate Underwater Volcano's Next Move

Researchers are closely monitoring the Axial Seamount, an underwater volcano located approximately 470 kilometers off the Oregon coast, as it is poised for an eruption that could occur between July 2024 and the end of 2025. This forecast comes amid significant geological indicators, including notable surface swelling and increased seismic activity, which have prompted scientists to make one of the most accurate predictions for underwater volcanic events to date. The latest measurements, taken in November, revealed that the surface of Axial Seamount has swelled to heights comparable to those recorded before its last eruption in 2015. This swelling is a clear indication of magma accumulation beneath the seafloor, leading researchers to believe that pressure is building up in anticipation of an eruption. For the past decade, a dedicated team led by geophysicist William Chadwick has diligently gathered and analyzed data from Axial Seamount, tracking signs such as surface deformation and earthquake swarms that resemble the precursors to its previous eruptions. "Forecasting volcanic eruptions more than hours ahead is pretty unique," Chadwick remarked, underscoring the significance of the predictions surrounding this underwater giant. Axial Seamount stands as one of the most active underwater volcanoes in the Northeast Pacific. Rising up to 1,100 meters high while being submerged over 1,400 meters beneath ocean waves, it is one of the most closely monitored submarine volcanoes globally. Since the installation of the first recording equipment in 1997, scientists have documented the seafloor's rumblings preceding three eruptions: in 1997, 2011, and 2015. The recent advancements in monitoring technology are expected to enhance researchers' capabilities in predicting eruptions even further. If an eruption occurs as predicted in 2025, it will mark a significant milestone in volcanology, as it would be among the first underwater eruptions to be accurately forecasted. Volcanologist Rebecca Carey from the University of Tasmania expressed excitement at the prospect of deploying remotely operated vehicles to observe the eruption when it occurs, a rare opportunity in the field of volcanology. Axial Seamount's relatively frequent eruptions allow scientists to continuously test and refine their models of volcanic activity and forecasting. Valerio Acocella, a volcanologist from Roma Tre University, noted the risks associated with volcanic forecasting, stating, "There is always the risk that a volcano will follow a pattern we haven't seen before and do something unexpected." Michael Poland, a geophysicist with the US Geological Survey, emphasized the importance of pattern recognition in these predictive efforts. "It's about recognizing patterns," he said, highlighting the critical role of historical data in shaping future predictions. While Axial Seamount does not currently pose a significant threat to human populations due to its remote location, the potential for an eruption raises important questions about preparedness. Although submarine volcanoes typically represent a lower risk to coastal communities compared to terrestrial volcanoes, their eruptions can still have far-reaching effects, as evidenced by the 2022 Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai eruption, which triggered a destructive tsunami across the Pacific. The recent uptick in seismic activity around Axial Seamount, characterized by hundreds of earthquakes occurring daily, serves as further evidence of the magma movement beneath the volcano. This inflation occurs as subterranean magma accumulates and exerts pressure on the crust, resulting in the swelling observed at the surface. The monitoring system in place proved invaluable during the 2015 eruption when the initial signs of swelling were noted, prompting accurate forecasts of the volcanic activity that followed. Researchers expect that by closely observing the developments over the coming year, they will gain deeper insights into the eruption patterns of Axial Seamount. In an innovative approach, scientists are now leveraging artificial intelligence to analyze seismic data from past eruptions, identifying specific patterns that might serve as precursors for future activities. The potential eruption could also have significant ecological implications, impacting underwater ecosystems and hydrothermal systems. Capturing an eruption in progress would provide a unique opportunity for scientists to study its environmental effects, offering insights into how volcanic activity influences surrounding biological communities. As the expected eruption date approaches, scientists will ramp up their monitoring efforts at Axial Seamount, focusing on ground swelling, seismic activity, and other geological indicators to further refine their predictions. The ultimate goal is to develop a robust warning system that can enhance preparedness for potential eruptions, thereby contributing to the safety of coastal communities around the world. As researchers prepare for what could be a groundbreaking event in the field of eruption forecasting, the work at Axial Seamount continues to be a critical touchpoint for understanding the complexities of underwater volcanic processes and improving the accuracy of future predictions.