Underwater Volcano Axial Seamount Could Erupt by 2025: Scientists Sound Alarm

Scientists are sounding the alarm about the potential for an underwater volcano off the northwestern coast of the United States to erupt in 2025. Axial Seamount, a towering structure rising over 3,000 feet from the ocean floor, is located approximately 300 miles off the coast of Oregon, submerged half a mile beneath the surface. The warning came following observations of significant seafloor swelling around Axial, which resembles the conditions seen just before its last eruption in 2015. Researchers have noted a marked increase in seismic activity, with hundreds of earthquakes detected daily, including more than 500 earthquake swarms. These trends led scientists to forecast a window for potential eruptions running from July 2024 to late 2025. Geophysicist William Chadwick from Oregon State University has been closely monitoring the volcano since November, when he and his team first detected the swelling. This swelling is particularly concerning as it indicates that magma is accumulating beneath the surface, creating pressure that can lead to an eruption. Since the last eruption, Axial has experienced a reinflation of over 95% of its last pre-eruption threshold, heightening the urgency for continued observation. Fortunately, experts assert that an eruption from Axial Seamount is unlikely to pose significant threats to coastal communities or infrastructure. As a shield volcano, Axial typically exhibits less explosive eruptions compared to other volcanic types, and the current level of seismic activity does not indicate a risk of causing tsunamis or major earthquakes. The research surrounding Axial Seamount provides a unique opportunity for scientists to enhance their understanding of volcanic behavior. Over the years, the volcano has erupted regularly, allowing researchers to study the precursors to an eruption and improve their predictive capabilities. Notably, the team’s successful prediction of the 2015 eruption has bolstered confidence in their methods. However, this ability to forecast eruptions is not something that can be taken lightly. Although Axial poses limited danger, the lessons learned could apply to other volcanoes that may be more hazardous. For instance, the catastrophic eruption of the Hunga underwater volcano in Tonga in January 2022 resulted in a devastating tsunami that inflicted an estimated $90 billion in damages across multiple countries, including the United States. As research continues, scientists have been employing advanced tools, including artificial intelligence, to analyze earthquake data and glean further insights into volcanic behavior. The ongoing monitoring of Axial Seamount not only serves as a testament to the advancement of geological sciences but also underscores the importance of vigilance in understanding and predicting volcanic activity in this geologically dynamic region. While the prospect of an eruption in 2025 may raise eyebrows, it is also an opportunity for scientific inquiry and progress. As researchers prepare for possible events in the coming years, they remain committed to unraveling the complexities of these geological phenomena, holding the potential for life-saving knowledge in the face of more dangerous eruptions elsewhere in the world.