"September in Mexico: between seismic memory and preventive science"

As September approaches on the horizon, the echoes of Mexico's seismic history resonate strongly in the minds of many. This month, which coincides with national celebrations, has become synonymous with fear and preventive rituals, such as the search for "panes para el susto" (bread for fear). This cultural phenomenon, rooted in the fear of earthquakes, invites reflection on the unpredictable nature of these natural events and the way they shape the collective memory of the country. The National Autonomous University of Mexico (UNAM) has been at the forefront of research on seismic activity, focusing particularly on September 19th. This day has been marked by two devastating tragedies: the earthquake of 1985 and that of 2017. The question many are asking is whether there is a real probability that history will repeat itself this month. Dr. Miguel Ángel Jaimes, from the Institute of Engineering at UNAM, has addressed this issue from a scientific perspective. In a study conducted in 2019, he used probabilistic methods to analyze the likelihood of two major earthquakes occurring on the same date. Surprisingly, his findings revealed that this possibility is quite low, suggesting that the perception of a "cursed day" may be more of a social construct than a scientific reality. However, the impact of earthquakes on collective memory cannot be underestimated. The coincidence of disasters on the same date has led to the belief that September 19th is especially prone to tremors. Dr. Jaimes emphasizes that while it seems unlikely for two significant earthquakes to occur on the same date, the reality is that history has played a crucial role in shaping society's perception of these risks. A more detailed analysis of the probabilities reveals that the occurrence of three earthquakes of magnitude 7 or greater on the dates of 1985, 2017, and 2022 is extremely low. In fact, these numerical calculations indicate that the chances are even lower than other unlikely events, such as being attacked by a shark or winning the lottery. However, this analytical approach may not be enough to calm the nerves of those who have closely experienced these tragedies. Mexico, situated between five tectonic plates, is prone to experiencing earthquakes. The interaction of the Caribbean, Pacific, North American, Rivera, and Cocos plates generates a subduction zone that extends across several states, increasing the country's vulnerability. This geological reality means that while the probability of an earthquake in September may be low, it can never be completely ruled out. Dr. Raúl Valenzuela Wong, from the Institute of Geophysics at UNAM, emphasizes that although destructive earthquakes have been recorded in other months, the memory of the most devastating events tends to endure in the community. Stories of survival, loss, and resilience intertwine, creating a narrative that is passed down from generation to generation. As Mexicans prepare for the month of September, it is crucial to balance respect for history with an understanding of science. The possibility of an earthquake will always be present, but this should not lead to panic. Instead, education and preparation are the best tools society can have to face these challenges. The tradition of "panes para el susto" may seem like a superstitious response to an inherent fear. However, it can also be seen as an opportunity to reflect on the vulnerability and strength of the community. Each September, as stories of the past are recounted, Mexicans have the chance to remember not only the tragedies but also the capacity for reconstruction and unity that characterizes the country. In conclusion, September in Mexico is a month of memory and reflection. Science offers us a deeper understanding of seismic phenomena, while culture invites us to remember and honor those who have faced these challenges. Ultimately, the combination of knowledge and community may be the key to confronting whatever the future may hold.