The Mexican peso depreciates by 16% after the elections, leading to economic uncertainty.

The appreciation of the Mexican peso, which had reached record levels in the context of the phenomenon known as the 'superpeso,' has experienced a drastic turnaround in recent weeks. Since the day before the elections on June 2, the peso has depreciated by 16% against the dollar, closing last Tuesday at 19.71 pesos per dollar, marking its highest level since December 2022, according to data from the Bank of Mexico (Banxico). This change occurs in an environment of growing uncertainty both domestically and internationally. On May 31, just before the elections in which the ruling party's presidential candidate, Claudia Sheinbaum, emerged victorious, the exchange rate stood at 16.96 pesos per dollar. Since then, the situation has changed dramatically, and in some currency exchange houses and bank branches in Ciudad Juárez, the dollar is already quoted above 20 pesos, signaling the end of the 'superpeso' phenomenon that characterized much of 2023. The depreciation of the peso is not only due to external factors but is also influenced by the political and judicial reforms pushed by the current government. Alejandro Sandoval Murillo, president of the Mexican Institute of Finance Executives in the Juárez Group, emphasizes that volatility in international markets, as well as current trade tensions, have played a fundamental role in this scenario. "We cannot ignore that there are multiple factors affecting the behavior of the peso. From war conflicts to the repercussions of the trade war between the United States and China, all these elements are on the table," Sandoval stated. However, the analyst also warns about the proposed reforms by the ruling party aimed at implementing popular elections in the Judiciary, which could bring about a significant change in the direction of public policies in the country. This environment of uncertainty has begun to impact the local economy, especially in border areas like Ciudad Juárez. According to Elizabeth Villalobos, president of the National Chamber of Commerce (Canaco) in the city, the rise of the dollar has both positive and negative repercussions for merchants. "When the dollar rises, the cost of the products we consume in the border area also increases. This negatively impacts our purchasing power," she indicated. Despite the complications, Villalobos also highlighted a possible positive effect: "A stronger currency can attract more tourism. It increases the number of people who come to consume in our restaurants and businesses, which can help balance things out a bit." This duality in the impact of the peso's depreciation resonates among citizens who cross daily into the United States. The testimonies of citizens shopping in El Paso, Texas, reveal that the situation is complicated for those living on the Mexican side. "For us, who come to shop here, the increase in the dollar is a direct hit to our pockets," commented Sandra Rascón, who was in line at the Paso del Norte International Bridge. Her experience reflects the feelings of many others who depend on these daily crossings. As the government's reforms are discussed in the new Congress, the future of the Mexican currency hangs in the balance. Analysts warn that the political decisions made in the coming months will be crucial in determining the direction the peso will take and, consequently, the Mexican economy as a whole. Uncertainty prevails, and the economy is at a critical moment. In this context, both merchants and citizens will have to adapt to a new reality in which the value of the peso has become volatile. While some see opportunities for tourism growth, others face rising living costs. The economic future of Mexico will depend on how these reforms are handled and the government's ability to stabilize the situation. The coming weeks and months will be decisive for the path the Mexican currency will take and, consequently, the economy of the country.