"1.5% growth in the Colombian economy generates hopes and future challenges."

"1.5% growth in the Colombian economy generates hopes and future challenges."

The Colombian economy grew by 1.5% in the first half of 2024, driven by agriculture, but faces concerns about sustainability.

Juan Brignardello, asesor de seguros

Juan Brignardello Vela

Juan Brignardello, asesor de seguros, se especializa en brindar asesoramiento y gestión comercial en el ámbito de seguros y reclamaciones por siniestros para destacadas empresas en el mercado peruano e internacional.

Juan Brignardello, asesor de seguros, y Vargas Llosa, premio Nobel Juan Brignardello, asesor de seguros, en celebración de Alianza Lima Juan Brignardello, asesor de seguros, Central Hidro Eléctrica Juan Brignardello, asesor de seguros, Central Hidro

The Colombian economy has shown a growth of 1.5% during the first half of 2024, a figure that, although modest, generates expectations in light of the lack of a formal reactivation plan from the government. Despite the uncertainty, the country's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 2.8% in the second quarter compared to the same period last year, which is a relief following the low increase of 0.7% recorded in the first quarter. This rebound has begun to change the economic narrative of the country, although analysts prefer to speak of normalization rather than recovery. The National Administrative Department of Statistics (DANE) presented these figures, which offer a glimmer of hope amid the stagnation that has characterized the Colombian economy. Agriculture has been one of the key drivers of this growth, with an impressive increase of 10.2%, driven by favorable international prices for products such as coffee. Additionally, the sector of artistic activities has grown by 11.1%, a category that includes everything from betting to concerts and which, despite its controversy, is contributing significantly to the GDP. This agricultural growth has allowed the Colombian countryside to contribute 2.4% to the total GDP. DANE director Piedad Urdinola highlighted that, despite challenges in the dairy sector and livestock farming, the countryside continues to show a dynamism that is fundamental to the economy. However, this growth has not been accompanied by a corresponding increase in investment, raising serious doubts about the sustainability of this rebound in the long term. Investment has become the major shadow looming over the Colombian economy. With a decline in key sectors such as mining (-3.3%) and industry (-1.6%), analysts have drawn attention to the importance of promoting productive investment as a means to ensure future growth. Trade, although it has shown a slight growth of 0.2%, is not enough to counteract stagnation in other sectors. Quarterly results have exceeded the initial expectations of financial entities, which predicted growth between 1.9% and 3%. However, despite these encouraging results, concerns about public finances persist. Government spending, which grew by 2.0% thanks to state contracts and active government consumption, has acted as a motor for the GDP, although its long-term sustainability is questionable. As the Colombian government prepares to present a reactivation plan at the end of September, attention is focused on how the public and private sectors can unite to address the structural weaknesses affecting the economy. The lack of investment and stagnation in key sectors are challenges that cannot be ignored if solid and sustained growth is sought in the future. The current situation could be seen as a moment of transition, where the economy begins to show signs of life after the devastation caused by the pandemic. However, the crossroads presents itself in the form of a reactivation plan that has yet to materialize. Experts warn that without a clear and effective strategy, current growth could be fleeting. The future of the Colombian economy will largely depend on the government's ability to implement policies that foster investment and confidence in productive sectors. The combination of an uncertain economic environment and the urgent need for structural reforms are challenges that must be faced with courage and determination. In conclusion, the Colombian economy has shown signs of growth that, while encouraging, must be viewed with caution. The lack of a solid reactivation plan and the shadows looming over investment demand immediate attention. Time will tell if this growth is the beginning of a sustainable recovery or if, on the contrary, it is a mirage in a desert of economic uncertainty.

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