Europe could face more intense hurricanes in the future

Every summer, the Atlantic Ocean becomes the stage for an astonishing natural spectacle: the formation and advance of hurricanes. From the Caribbean to the east coast of North America, these impressive tropical storms wreak havoc and make headlines worldwide. However, there is a region that seems to be shielded from these phenomena: Europe. Although it is extremely rare for a hurricane to reach European shores, some scientists warn that this situation could change in the future. To understand why hurricanes rarely affect Europe, it is necessary to analyze the atmospheric conditions that favor their formation and development in the western Atlantic. The rotation of the Earth creates a stratification in the prevailing winds, especially in the low latitudes near the equator, where the winds move from west to east. This tropical zone is conducive to hurricane formation due to the high ocean temperature, which is crucial for their development. Hurricanes feed on warm waters and lose strength as they move away from them. Therefore, when a hurricane manages to surpass the barrier of the 30th parallel, where the waters of the North Atlantic are colder, its intensity significantly decreases. That is why most hurricanes that manage to reach Europe arrive weakened, transformed into depressions or conventional storms. Over the years, there have been exceptional cases where hurricanes or subtropical storms have reached Europe, such as Hurricane Ophelia in 2017, which wreaked havoc in the northern part of the continent. These events are rare but not impossible, and some scientists suggest that climate change could alter this dynamic in the future. The increase in ocean temperature associated with climate change could cause hurricanes to maintain their strength for longer periods and move towards higher latitudes, increasing the possibility of them reaching Europe with greater intensity. This scenario poses a challenge for the region, which historically has been less exposed to these natural phenomena. The year 2024 is shaping up to be a key period to test this hypothesis, as an intense hurricane season is expected. According to studies, on average two tropical cyclones reach Europe each year, but this figure could vary significantly depending on atmospheric and oceanic conditions. In addition to the possible arrival of hurricanes in Europe, another phenomenon that concerns experts are the so-called Mediterranean tropical cyclones or "medicanes". These storms, which form in the Mediterranean Sea, can reach intensities comparable to Category 1 hurricanes, although their impact is limited by the lower temperature of the Mediterranean waters and the smaller size of the sea. In conclusion, while hurricanes in Europe are still a rarity, the landscape could change in the not-so-distant future due to climate change and the possibility of these tropical storms reaching European shores with greater force. In light of this prospect, it is essential to be prepared and take preventive measures to address the potential effects of these weather phenomena in the region.