A team of Spanish mathematicians is developing algorithms to predict natural disasters in real time.

At the end of this year, two decades will have passed since one of the greatest natural disasters on the planet: the tsunami that occurred in the Indian Ocean following a 9.1 magnitude earthquake, which became the most devastating disaster in terms of the number of victims and damages caused that humanity has faced to date. Even today, the consequences of this catastrophe can still be felt, and despite the time that has passed, it remains very present in locations such as Thailand or Indonesia, two of the regions (but not the only ones) that suffered the most from the impact of this tragedy. In this context, discoveries such as the one just made by a team of Spanish mathematicians become even more relevant. These professionals, coordinated by experts from the University of Malaga and the University of Seville, in collaboration with researchers from different European and American centers, are developing algorithms capable of predicting natural disasters caused by tsunamis, floods, or avalanches in real time. The project, funded by the Ministry of Science, Innovation, and Universities (MICIU), is organized under the title 'Nonlinear equilibrium laws for simulation in fluid mechanics: modeling, numerical methods, analysis, efficient implementation, and applications.' The developed algorithms allow for the accurate and real-time prediction of natural disasters such as floods or tsunamis, which are complex, nonlinear phenomena subject to a large amount of imprecise data. Manuel J. Castro, coordinator of the research team from the EDANYA Group at the University of Malaga, explains that defining a real-time predictive model poses different mathematical challenges, ranging from the design and analysis of the mathematical model to the constant incorporation of collected information to "progressively refine the prediction." The evolution of tsunami waves or displacements can be modeled through a set of mathematical equations derived from the physical principles that characterize these fluids. In most cases, obtaining exact solutions is impossible, so approximations are necessary. Therefore, the research team proposes innovative mathematical models that will allow for the study and simulation of these phenomena, addressing the design and analysis of new approximation algorithms and their efficient implementation on supercomputers such as the one at the Barcelona Supercomputing Center. According to the State Research Agency, from the occurrence of an earthquake that can trigger a tsunami until the alert is activated, there are only a few minutes available to predict its impact. It is during this brief period of time that it is essential to make a reliable approximation of the affected areas, the height the wave will reach, or which coastal areas will be flooded. According to the researchers, beyond the scientific scope, this project will have a "relevant social impact" as it will help design advanced mathematical tools that will facilitate the development of contingency plans and the preparation of the population for such disasters. In summary, this advancement in Spanish mathematical algorithms for predicting natural disasters not only represents a significant scientific achievement but also promises to have a direct impact on society by enabling better preparation and response to catastrophic events. The combination of mathematical research with supercomputing technology offers a new perspective for addressing the prediction and mitigation of natural disasters, which is crucial in a world where climate change is generating extreme phenomena more frequently and intensely. This collaborative work between Spanish institutions and other international research centers highlights the transformative potential of applied science for the benefit of humanity.