A team of mathematicians revolutionizes the prediction of natural disasters with innovative algorithms

A team of mathematicians from the universities of Malaga and Seville, in collaboration with researchers from different universities and alert centers in Europe and the United States, are carrying out an innovative project that could revolutionize the way natural disasters such as tsunamis, floods, or avalanches are predicted and addressed. Under the coordination of Manuel J. Castro, Carlos Parés, and Enrique Fernández Nieto, this team of experts is developing algorithms capable of predicting in real time devastating natural events caused by maritime storms. The project, funded by the Ministry of Science, Innovation and Universities through the State Research Agency, focuses on the modeling and simulation of geophysical fluids to design new mathematical models that allow a more precise understanding and prediction of these phenomena. This initiative not only aims to improve the ability to anticipate natural disasters but also to facilitate real-time decision-making when these events occur. One of the major challenges that researchers face is the short time they have to predict the impact of an earthquake that could trigger a tsunami. From the moment the earthquake occurs until the alert is issued, they only have a few minutes to determine which areas could be affected and what prevention measures should be implemented. The complexity of these phenomena, combined with the scarcity of precise data such as submarine topography or the dynamics of tectonic faults, makes the task even more challenging. To address this issue, the experts are developing predictive models that combine real-time available information with advanced mathematical algorithms. These models aim not only to predict the magnitude of a tsunami or a flood, but also to continuously refine as more information is collected during the event. In this way, a significant improvement in the ability to anticipate and respond to emergency situations is expected. The social impact of this project is undeniable. The results obtained so far are already being used in alert centers in several countries, such as the National Geographic Institute in Spain, the Hydrographic and Oceanographic Service of the Navy in Chile, the National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology in Italy, and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration in the United States. These centers rely on the models developed by the EDANYA Group to improve their early warning systems and ensure the safety of the population in the face of the threat of natural disasters. The use of supercomputers, such as those available at the Barcelona Supercomputing Center and at CINECA in Italy, has been crucial for the efficient implementation of these predictive algorithms. The processing and real-time data analysis capabilities provided by these technological devices have allowed researchers to make significant progress in the simulation and prediction of extreme geophysical events. In summary, the development of algorithms capable of predicting natural disasters in real time represents a significant advance in science and technology. The combination of innovative mathematical models, high-performance supercomputing, and international collaboration has allowed this team of researchers to come closer to the goal of preventing natural tragedies and protecting the population in emergency situations. This project not only has a scientific impact but also promises to transform the way we face natural disasters in the near future.