Spanish project develops algorithms to predict natural disasters in real time

A Spanish project is developing algorithms capable of predicting natural disasters in real time. A team of Spanish mathematicians, led by Manuel J. Castro, Carlos Parés, and Enrique D. Fernández Nieto, in collaboration with researchers from various universities and alert centers in Europe and the United States, are working on the development of new algorithms to predict events such as tsunamis, floods, and avalanches triggered by maritime storms. The modeling of the evolution of tsunami waves or submarine landslides is based on mathematical equations known as partial differential equations, derived from the physical principles governing these fluids, as reported by the State Research Agency. However, in many cases, it is impossible to obtain exact solutions to these equations, so it is necessary to approximate them. Within the coordinated project 'Nonlinear equilibrium laws for simulation in fluid mechanics', funded by the Ministry of Science, Innovation, and Universities through the State Research Agency, the research team proposes innovative mathematical models for the study and simulation of these phenomena. In addition, the design and analysis of new approximation algorithms and their efficient implementation on supercomputers such as the Barcelona Supercomputing Center (BSC) or CINECA in Italy are addressed. This advancement, made possible through the modeling and simulation of geophysical fluids, will facilitate the design of contingency plans and the population's preparedness for threats associated with natural disasters. The project coordinators emphasize the importance of having tools that enable real-time decision-making when these threats occur. According to Manuel J. Castro, accurately predicting natural disasters such as floods or tsunamis in real time is a challenge due to the complexity of these phenomena and the large amount of imprecise data involved, such as topobathymetric data or fault rupture dynamics in an earthquake. Extreme events like the 2011 Japan tsunami are rare and pose a challenge for prediction and simulation due to the lack of historical data. Researchers argue that the use of real-time predictive models poses various mathematical challenges, from designing and analyzing the mathematical model to efficient and robust resolution. The models must be able to incorporate real-time information to progressively refine the predictions provided. In addition to its scientific impact in the field of mathematics and its applications, the project promises significant social impact by generating new advanced mathematical tools that will facilitate the development of contingency plans and population preparedness for natural disasters. These tools can be integrated into early warning systems and urgent computing platforms for a more efficient response to devastating natural events. The EDANYA Group, together with the INGV, provides the Tsunami Service to the Emergency Response Coordination Center (ERCC) of the European Commission, allowing them to contribute significantly to real-time humanitarian decision-making in natural events. The models developed by this team of mathematicians are already being used in alert centers in various countries, such as the National Geographic Institute in Spain, the Hydrographic and Oceanographic Service of the Navy in Chile, the National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology in Italy, and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration in the United States. The project collaborates with various research teams and specialized centers in different countries, ensuring a multidisciplinary perspective and broad operational capacity. The combination of efforts and knowledge in mathematics, geophysics, and computational technology promises to continue strengthening the predictive and responsive capabilities to natural disasters worldwide.