Spanish team advances in predicting natural disasters: a crucial step for society.

A team of Spanish mathematicians, led by Manuel J. Castro, Carlos Parés, and Enrique D. Fernández Nieto, has taken a significant step in the development of algorithms capable of predicting natural disasters such as tsunamis and floods caused by maritime storms in real time. This advancement, resulting from collaboration with researchers from various universities and alert centers in Europe and the United States, is emerging as a fundamental tool for designing contingency plans and preparing the population for natural threats. The EDANYA Group from the University of Malaga and the University of Seville are at the forefront of research in modeling and simulating geophysical fluids, addressing the design of new approximation algorithms and their efficient implementation on high-performance supercomputers. This project, funded by the Ministry of Science, Innovation, and Universities through the State Research Agency, aims not only to advance mathematical knowledge but also to have a positive impact on society. Partial differential equations are the basis for modeling the evolution of tsunami waves or submarine landslides, but obtaining exact solutions in most cases is impossible, so approximations are necessary. This is where the innovative mathematical models proposed by this team of researchers come into play, allowing for more precise simulation and prediction of these complex and nonlinear phenomena. The importance of being able to quickly and accurately predict events such as tsunamis or floods lies in the narrow time frame between the occurrence of a precursor earthquake and the activation of an alert. The ability to identify potentially affected areas, estimate wave height on the coast, or predict the extent of flooding is crucial for informed decision-making and population protection in emergency situations. Manuel J. Castro highlights the difficulty of predicting extreme and infrequent events such as tsunamis, which lack sufficient historical data for traditional predictive models. Furthermore, the interaction of different scales in natural disasters, such as the aforementioned volcanic tsunami of Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai in 2022, adds a layer of complexity that requires advanced mathematical approaches. The use of real-time predictive models poses challenges in their design and analysis, as well as in the integration of continuous information to improve prediction accuracy. The researchers emphasize the social relevance of their work, which not only impacts the scientific field but also contributes to population protection and decision-making in the face of natural disasters. Currently, the models developed by the EDANYA Group are already being used in alert centers in different countries, such as the National Geographic Institute in Spain and the Hydrographic and Oceanographic Service of the Navy in Chile. These numerical tools allow for a more effective and coordinated response to emergency situations, optimizing risk management and the safety of communities exposed to adverse natural events. International collaboration has been key to the advancement of this project, with the participation of researchers from various institutions in Europe and the United States. The operational implementation of the new mathematical models, in close collaboration with reference centers in the fields of geophysics and volcanology, promises to strengthen the response capacity to natural disasters globally. In conclusion, the work of these Spanish mathematicians not only represents a milestone in the field of predicting natural disasters but also opens the door to greater preparedness and resilience of society in the face of extreme events. The combination of scientific excellence with the practical application of their research promises to make a significant difference in the management of natural risks worldwide.