Climate change is responsible for one in five new dengue infections.

Climate change is altering not only the climate of our planet but also public health, and a new study reveals the alarming connection between this phenomenon and the rise in dengue cases. According to researchers, one in five dengue cases can be directly attributed to changing climate conditions, a fact that underscores the urgency of taking action against the environmental crisis facing the world.

The study, presented at the annual meeting of the American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene, highlighted that approximately 19% of current dengue cases are linked to climate change. This connection is particularly concerning as it is projected that by 2050, the number of infections could rise by between 40% and 60%. In some regions, the increase could be even more drastic, reaching figures between 150% and 200%.

Erin Mordecai, an infectious disease ecologist at Stanford University and the lead author of the study, points out that as temperatures in the United States approach the optimal range for dengue transmission, local infections are likely to increase. “We are seeing how climate warming is not only affecting the environment but also our health,” warns Mordecai, emphasizing the need for preventive measures.

The mosquitoes that transmit dengue are sensitive to temperature changes. Previous research has shown that, within a specific temperature range, these insects produce more virus. Temperatures between 20 °C and 27.7 °C are conducive for mosquitoes to increase their capacity to transmit the dengue virus, putting at risk populations living in regions where temperatures are rising.

Globally, it is estimated that at least 257 million people reside in areas where climate warming could double dengue cases in the next two decades. This increase in infections not only poses a risk to public health but also puts pressure on health systems that are already struggling to cope with other diseases.

The symptoms of dengue are devastating, with intense pain leading many to nickname the disease “breakbone fever.” Furthermore, in its more severe forms, dengue can cause life-threatening hemorrhagic complications. Currently, there are no specific treatments, making the need for control and prevention even more urgent.

Although there is a vaccine for dengue in the United States, it is only applicable to a specific group of children who have already had an infection and live in areas where dengue is common. The lack of effective treatment options highlights the need for climate change mitigation strategies to limit the spread of the virus.

The study also indicates that, while drastic cuts in greenhouse gas emissions could reduce the projected increase in cases by 20%, the reality is that 17 of the 21 countries analyzed will continue to see an increase in dengue cases due to climatic factors. This poses a significant challenge for public health policies and the management of infectious diseases.

Regions where dengue is already endemic, such as Peru, Mexico, Bolivia, and Brazil, could experience the largest increases in infections, adding an additional burden to health systems that are already facing significant challenges. Additionally, it should be noted that many regions, especially in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia, lack adequate monitoring of dengue infections, which could lead to an underestimation of risk.

As the climate crisis intensifies, the findings of this study offer a call to urgent action. The interconnectedness between climate change and public health is undeniable, and nations must prioritize climate change mitigation as a fundamental strategy to protect the health of their populations. Without decisive action, dengue, along with other diseases, could become an even greater threat in the future, exacerbating an already critical public health issue.