Spanish researchers make progress in predicting natural disasters caused by maritime storms.

A team of Spanish researchers has made a significant breakthrough in predicting natural disasters caused by maritime storms, such as tsunamis, floods, or avalanches. This group of mathematicians, led by Manuel J. Castro and Carlos Parés from the University of Malaga and Enrique D. Fernández Nieto from the University of Seville, in collaboration with experts from various institutions in Europe and the United States, has developed new algorithms capable of predicting catastrophic events and the size of the associated waves in real time. According to the State Research Agency, the modeling of the evolution of tsunami waves and submarine landslides is based on complex mathematical equations, known as partial differential equations, derived from the physical principles that govern these phenomena. In many cases, obtaining exact solutions to these equations is impossible, so their approximation is required through innovative algorithms. The project coordinated by these researchers, funded by the Ministry of Science, Innovation, and Universities, aims to develop advanced mathematical models to simulate these events efficiently on supercomputers. This technology will allow for the design of contingency plans, preparing the population for natural disasters, and making real-time decisions during emergency situations. The speed in predicting the impact of a tsunami is crucial, as the time between an earthquake and the activation of the alert is limited. According to Manuel J. Castro, one of the project coordinators, the complexity and rarity of events like the 2011 Japan tsunamis, which affect extensive geographical areas, pose challenges for real-time prediction due to the lack of complete historical data. Castro highlights that simulating events like the tsunami caused by the eruption of the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai volcano in 2022, which had global repercussions, requires high computational power. Therefore, the application of real-time predictive models involves mathematical and technological challenges that must be addressed with precision and efficiency. The researchers emphasize that integrating these mathematical tools into early warning systems and urgent computing platforms will have a significant social impact by facilitating decision-making during emergency situations. Additionally, their contribution to the ARISTOTLE-eENHSP project, where they collaborate with the European Commission's Emergency Response Coordination Center, is essential for coordinating humanitarian responses to natural disasters. Currently, some of the models developed by this team are already being used in alert centers in various countries. For example, the National Geographic Institute of Spain uses the Tsunami-HySEA model for early warning of tsunamis in our country. Similarly, institutions such as SHOA in Chile and INGV in Italy rely on these algorithms to simulate events and make operational decisions that affect the population. In summary, the Spanish technology developed by this team of researchers offers a powerful tool for the real-time prediction and simulation of tsunamis and other catastrophic maritime events. Its application in early warning systems represents a significant advancement in the preparation and response to natural disasters, contributing to the protection of the population and the effective coordination of authorities in emergency situations.