Black Sea Residents Urged to Prepare as Earthquake Risks Rise Along Vulnerable Coastline

In a recent alarm raised by Geology Engineer Prof. Dr. Osman Bektaş, residents along the Black Sea coast are urged to brace for the potential of a significant seismic event, with forecasts predicting an earthquake of magnitude 6.6 or greater could strike at any moment. This warning comes on the heels of a series of smaller tremors, including a recent 3.2 magnitude earthquake in the Akçaabat district of Trabzon, which has heightened concerns about the region's geological stability. Prof. Bektaş delineates the precarious positioning of the Trabzon-Rize coast, situated between two major earthquake zones: the North Anatolian Fault to the south and the Black Sea fault looming to the north. He explains that the active nature of these faults means that the coastal area is particularly vulnerable, with the potential for significant earthquakes leading to devastating consequences. “The maximum earthquake magnitude that this fault can produce in the next 50 years is 6.6, with a 90% probability,” he stated. “However, there remains a 10% chance for an earthquake even larger than that.” This heightened risk is compounded by an alarming surge in landslides and other natural disasters afflicting the Eastern Black Sea Region, including floods and rockfalls. Prof. Bektaş notes that the increased seismic activity has already begun to have tangible effects on the landscape. Since 2012, there's been a notable rise in the frequency of earthquakes in the region, particularly those registering at or above magnitude 3. This seismic activity acts as a catalyst, increasing stress along existing faults, and contributing to the instability of the mountainous terrain. “After the Çamlıhemşin earthquake, the slopes in Artvin have become extremely active, leading to numerous landslides,” he cautioned. The professor stresses that while rainfall is often blamed for these geological events, it is not the only factor at play. The continuous rising of the mountains—coupled with gravity—exacerbates the situation, while minor seismic events serve to mobilize already fractured and unstable geological structures. As the region anticipates more seismic activity, Prof. Bektaş emphasizes the critical need for preparedness, especially in coastal areas where the sandy soil can amplify the impact of an earthquake. “Coastal areas are much more dangerous and risky,” he warned, urging local authorities and residents alike to take necessary precautions. The Eastern Black Sea Region, with its unique geological characteristics, is at a crossroads. With the knowledge of the potential dangers lurking beneath the surface, the call for enhanced infrastructure resilience and comprehensive disaster preparedness has never been more urgent. As experts continue to monitor the situation, the community is left to ponder the implications of these warnings and the measures that must be taken to safeguard lives and property along this beautiful yet vulnerable coastline.