Black Sea Coast Faces Urgent Earthquake Threat: Experts Urge Immediate Preparedness

An alarming earthquake warning has been issued for the Black Sea coast, as experts highlight the urgent need for preparedness in light of recent geological activity. The region, particularly the Eastern Black Sea area, has experienced a surge in natural disasters, including landslides, rockfalls, and floods, prompting concerns about the potential for a significant earthquake. Geology Engineer Prof. Dr. Osman Bektaş recently provided insights into the active seismic conditions threatening the coastline. He noted that the Black Sea fault, which runs parallel to the coast, has the capacity to generate earthquakes of 6.6 magnitude or higher. This assessment comes after a recent 3.2 magnitude quake in the Akçaabat district of Trabzon was felt across the city, underscoring the region's vulnerability. Prof. Bektaş explained that the Trabzon-Rize coastline is precariously positioned between two major earthquake zones: the North Anatolian Fault and the East North Anatolian Fault to the south, and the Black Sea fault to the north. "The maximum earthquake magnitude that this fault can produce in the next 50 years is 6.6 with a 90% probability. However, there is a 10% chance that it could be even greater," he cautioned. He emphasized the necessity for buildings along the Eastern Black Sea coast to be constructed with these geological realities in mind. The expert elaborated on the relationship between minor seismic events and landslides, indicating that small earthquakes can significantly increase stress on geological faults. Notably, Bektaş referenced a 5.6 magnitude earthquake in 2012 that had lasting effects on the region, as subsequent aftershocks were felt in Trabzon. He pointed out that the growing frequency of minor earthquakes in the area since 2012 has been alarming, and recent incidents, including a 4.7 magnitude quake in Çamlıhemşin, Rize, have only heightened concerns about increased fault stress. The risk extends beyond the immediate dangers of seismic activity. Prof. Bektaş warned that coastal areas, particularly those with sandy terrain, could experience amplified effects during an earthquake. "The sandy areas along the coast increase the magnitude of the earthquake," he stated, highlighting the additional risks posed to residents and infrastructure. As climate change continues to exacerbate weather patterns, the interplay between rainfall, seismic activity, and geological features makes the Eastern Black Sea region particularly susceptible to landslides. Prof. Bektaş noted that the combination of rising mountains, increased precipitation, and frequent earthquakes serves to destabilize slopes, creating conditions ripe for landslides. "These small and medium-sized earthquakes act as a hammer on the slopes," he explained. "They can mobilize fractured, landslide-prone, and unstable structures." In light of these warnings, local governments and communities along the Black Sea coast must take proactive measures to enhance their readiness for potential seismic events. Building codes must be updated, public awareness campaigns initiated, and contingency plans developed to mitigate the risks of an impending disaster. The time to act is now, as experts affirm that the region must be prepared for a significant earthquake at any moment.