Underwater Volcano Axial Seamount Sparks Alarm as Eruption Risk Grows by 2025

Scientists are sounding the alarm about an underwater volcano off the northwestern coast of the United States, predicting that the Axial Seamount may erupt sometime in 2025. This towering volcanic structure, which rises over 3,600 feet from the ocean floor and lies half a mile beneath the surface, is located approximately 300 miles from Oregon. The latest findings, released on December 10, reveal signs of swelling around the volcano that closely resemble the conditions prior to its last eruption in 2015. Researchers have observed a significant uptick in seismic activity around Axial Seamount, with hundreds of small earthquakes occurring daily. This includes swarms of more than 500 quakes in a single day. According to a study led by scientists monitoring the site, the volcano appears to be primed for an eruption, with the current forecast window ranging from July 2024 to the end of 2025. This prediction hinges on the volcano reaching an inflation threshold similar to that observed before the last eruption nearly a decade ago. Geophysicist William Chadwick, from Oregon State University, first became concerned about the volcano's swelling in November 2023. The swelling is a strong indicator of magma accumulation underground, which signals that pressure is building and an eruption could be imminent. The researchers had previously used similar signs to forecast the 2015 eruption successfully—a feat they described as their “best forecasting success.” Since the previous eruption, observations indicate that Axial has re-inflated to more than 95% of the height it reached before that event. However, this swelling has not been uniform; there was a period of slowed inflation between 2015 and 2023. Yet, starting in late 2023 and accelerating into 2024, both the swelling and seismic activity have increased significantly, suggesting a notable change in the magma supply to the volcano. As of mid-2024, the rate of swelling has surged to about 10 inches per year, raising concerns that an eruption could happen even before the end of 2024 if current trends continue. Chadwick emphasized the rarity of being able to predict volcanic eruptions with such advanced notice, stating that the research surrounding Axial Seamount is pioneering in understanding underwater volcanic activity. Despite the looming possibility of an eruption, experts reassure that Axial Seamount poses little threat to populated areas along the West Coast. As a shield volcano, it is characterized by non-explosive eruptions, and the seismic activity around it is not strong enough to trigger a tsunami or significant earthquake. The insights gained from studying Axial Seamount have broader implications for volcanology. The knowledge acquired may aid in predicting more hazardous eruptions from other underwater volcanoes. For example, the catastrophic eruption of the Hunga volcano in January 2022 caused extensive damage across several countries, including the United States. The research surrounding Axial could prove invaluable in enhancing our understanding of potential threats from more dangerous volcanic systems. As scientists prepare for the possibility of an eruption at Axial Seamount, they also anticipate valuable learning opportunities that this event may provide. The continuous monitoring and advanced technologies employed in this research could refine eruption forecasting methodologies, potentially saving lives and reducing damage in the face of future volcanic activity.