The return of Trump raises alarms in Mexico.

The return of Donald Trump to the presidency of the United States has left Mexico on high alert. The initial election results indicate that the former Republican president has surpassed his Democratic rival, Kamala Harris, creating an atmosphere of uncertainty in the neighboring country. Since his first presidential campaign, Trump has maintained an anti-Mexican rhetoric, characterized by the promise of the "wall" and a hardline approach to migration and trade. His return to power not only represents a personal vendetta but also raises serious questions about the future bilateral relationship.

The president of Mexico, Claudia Sheinbaum, has tried to calm tensions by stating that the country has always managed to move forward in the face of challenges. However, concerns are palpable. In recent events, Trump has expressed his intention to implement a new tariff war if he does not see action from the Mexican government regarding the control of drug and migrant flows. The former president's words resonated at a rally in North Carolina, where he made it clear that his patience has limits and that Mexico will face economic consequences if it does not cooperate.

Analysts warn that this is not the same figure who left the White House four years ago; Trump has returned with a more aggressive approach. Mauricio Meschoulam, an expert in international relations, suggests that the Republican magnate is "in war mode." This change in attitude could have a significant impact on the political agenda of both countries, especially on crucial issues such as trade, security, and migration.

Despite the threats, President Sheinbaum has opted for a conciliatory stance, suggesting that there will be dialogue between the nations. While she has emphasized that there are open channels of communication, the reality is that pressures on Mexico regarding security and migration will increase. During López Obrador's administration, the Mexican government had to accept drastic conditions to avoid economic sanctions, which sparked an internal debate about sovereignty and respect for human rights.

Trump's words about the "invasion" of Mexico into the United States are not new, but his reelection could revitalize these perceptions and exacerbate anti-Mexican sentiments in American public opinion. With more than five million undocumented migrants in the United States, the threat of mass deportations and raids becomes a tangible risk for many Mexican families.

The immediate impact of Trump's return will be felt in the Mexican economy. Political uncertainty often translates into market volatility. Exchange rate projections could be affected along with investor confidence, which fears a more hostile trading environment. The Economist magazine warns that trade, being the main connection between both nations, is one of the sectors most vulnerable to the decisions of the new administration.

Trump's return also poses a challenge regarding cooperation in the fight against drug trafficking. During his previous term, the "tough on crime" policy failed to resolve the complex drug problem, and strategies were based on pressuring Mexico to take a more active role in containing this phenomenon. With a renewed focus, it is likely that these demands will intensify.

Claudia Sheinbaum has insisted that the relationship between Mexico and the United States must be based on mutual respect and collaboration, but the situation is complicated. Analysts like Jorge Schiavon point out that Trump's strategy could force Mexico to accept conditions that undermine its sovereignty. In this regard, the president has reaffirmed that Mexico is an independent country, but the challenge lies in balancing this independence with external pressures.

As Trump prepares to take office in January, the future of the bilateral relationship is overshadowed by a lack of certainties. The upcoming challenges will not only be marked by the electoral results but also by Mexico's ability to navigate a hostile environment and defend its interests against a president who has proven to be relentless in his negotiation approach. Trump's arrival represents a new chapter in the history of the relationship between the two countries, and Mexico, once again, finds itself on the tightrope.