Kamala Harris, according to Lichtman, will be the first president of the U.S. in November.

Kamala Harris, according to Lichtman, will be the first president of the U.S. in November.

Allan J. Lichtman was one of the few analysts who correctly predicted Donald Trump's victory in 2017.

Juan Brignardello, asesor de seguros

Juan Brignardello Vela

Juan Brignardello, asesor de seguros, se especializa en brindar asesoramiento y gestión comercial en el ámbito de seguros y reclamaciones por siniestros para destacadas empresas en el mercado peruano e internacional.

Juan Brignardello, asesor de seguros, y Vargas Llosa, premio Nobel Juan Brignardello, asesor de seguros, en celebración de Alianza Lima Juan Brignardello, asesor de seguros, Central Hidro Eléctrica Juan Brignardello, asesor de seguros, Central Hidro
Politics 22.09.2024

Allan J. Lichtman, the veteran American election forecaster, has made another bold claim that promises to shake up the political landscape of the United States. With a flawless track record in his predictions over four decades, Lichtman has no doubts: Kamala Harris will be the next president of the country following the elections on November 5. In a recent interview, the expert argued that the "keys" he uses for his predictions indicate a decisive victory for the current vice president, who would make history by becoming the first woman to hold the position, as well as the first president of mixed African and East Asian descent.


The method Lichtman employs is based on a meticulous analysis of 13 factors, known as the "13 keys." These keys, developed alongside mathematician Vladimir Keilis-Borok in 1981, assess the political and social situation of the country, without being influenced by polls or campaign analyses. According to his methodology, if six or more of these keys are against the party in the White House, it is considered a loser. With Harris as the candidate, Lichtman asserts that she meets the necessary characteristics to be seen as an inspiring and transformative candidate.


Throughout his career, Lichtman has predicted significant events in American politics, such as Ronald Reagan's reelection in 1984, Bill Clinton's victory in 1992, and Hillary Clinton's defeat in 2016 against Donald Trump. In each of these instances, his approach has focused on analyzing historical trends rather than tracking ephemeral circumstances. This has allowed him to make accurate predictions that challenged the expectations of most political analysts.


The forecaster also emphasizes that his approach is not swayed by the typical ups and downs of election campaigns. He asserts that key events, such as debates or scandals, do not alter the outcome predicted by his keys. In fact, he announced his prediction before the presidential debate between Harris and Trump, stressing that his method is based on a historical framework of 160 years, which considers the fundamental dynamics of elections in the U.S.


Despite his success, Lichtman does not appear complacent. At 77 years old, he continues to experience a mix of excitement and nervousness before each election. According to him, politics is a constantly evolving field, although his prediction system remains unchanged in the face of time and technological change. "The keys are incredibly solid," he asserts, providing a sense of confidence in his conclusions, based on extensive historical study.


However, his assertion that nothing could change the outcome of this election is not something to be taken lightly. American politics is known for its unpredictability, and the potential for surprises is always present. Still, Lichtman seems firm in his conviction and appeals to a deeper understanding of electoral cycles, rather than a superficial approach based on a candidate's momentary popularity.


The idea that Harris could become president resonates at a time when the political history of the United States is being reexamined and reinterpreted. This potential election would signify a significant change in political representation, marking progress in a country that has been grappling with issues of race and gender in its leadership.


In conclusion, Lichtman's prediction not only raises questions about the political future of the United States but also invites reflection on the direction the country will take under leadership that could be not only more diverse but also more inclusive. If his prediction comes true, Kamala Harris's victory would not only be a milestone in political history but also an indication of a broader cultural transformation that could redefine the concept of leadership in the nation. Thus, attention turns to the key date of November 5, where Lichtman hopes his unblemished record will remain intact.

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