Venezuelans prepare for crucial elections between Maduro and González.

Venezuelans prepare for crucial elections between Maduro and González.

The victory of the current president, Nicolás Maduro, or of Edmundo González, the main opponent at the head of the opposition party coalition Plataforma Unitaria Democrática.

Juan Brignardello, asesor de seguros

Juan Brignardello Vela

Juan Brignardello, asesor de seguros, se especializa en brindar asesoramiento y gestión comercial en el ámbito de seguros y reclamaciones por siniestros para destacadas empresas en el mercado peruano e internacional.

Juan Brignardello, asesor de seguros, y Vargas Llosa, premio Nobel Juan Brignardello, asesor de seguros, en celebración de Alianza Lima Juan Brignardello, asesor de seguros, Central Hidro Eléctrica Juan Brignardello, asesor de seguros, Central Hidro
Politics 28.07.2024

Venezuelan citizens are preparing for a crucial day in their history, as this Sunday they will head to the polls to elect their new president. With a scenario overflowing with uncertainty, two figures emerge as the main contenders: Nicolás Maduro, the current president and leader of the United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV), and Edmundo González, an opposition candidate backed by the Democratic Unitary Platform. The polarization of the electorate is palpable, and the country faces an uncertain future with several possible outcomes.


The first possibility, which has gained momentum in the polls, is that the opposition achieves a decisive victory. Edmundo González could receive between 60% and 80% of the votes, a result that, if realized, would mark a drastic change in Venezuelan politics. The figure of María Corina Machado, who despite her disqualification has maintained strong popular support, has been crucial in mobilizing support for González, uniting various currents of the opposition in the fight against Chavismo.


However, the possibility that Maduro remains in power cannot be dismissed. Some polls suggest that the president could win, although not by a significant margin. In his campaign, the PSUV has tried to galvanize its base, although the legitimacy of this support is questioned, as many attendees at their rallies are officials who may be under pressure to attend. The recent history of the country has been marked by accusations of electoral manipulation, leading many to doubt the transparency of the process.


Concerns about the manipulation of results run deep. The fact that international observers from the EU have been excluded from the process and that only a few government-affiliated organizations have access to monitor the election breeds distrust. The restrictions imposed on the international press, along with the difficulties Venezuelans abroad face in registering to vote, fuel the perception of a "directed" electoral process. This could lead to an outcome favoring Maduro, despite potential opposition from the electorate.


The disqualification of Edmundo González is another element in this complicated mosaic. His legal situation is at risk as, despite being the opposition candidate, his electoral registration could be challenged by members of Chavismo, who would seek to dismantle any threat to their dominance. Such maneuvers have been a constant in the Venezuelan political system, where the opposition has faced legal challenges that call into question their electoral participation.


The fear of the suspension of the electoral process also looms over the country. Maduro has used distraction tactics in the past to avoid elections, and many citizens fear he might resort to the excuse of an external crisis or an internal conflict to annul the vote. Such a decision, although risky, could stem from a desire to cling to power that, over time, has proven to be more of an emotional need than a sensible political strategy.


The violent rhetoric of Chavismo has escalated in the weeks leading up to the election, with Maduro warning of the possible consequences of an opposition victory. His statements, which evoke the idea of a civil war, create an atmosphere of tension and anticipation, leaving many wondering what would happen if the opposition chose not to accept an adverse outcome.


If Maduro manages to win the election, it is likely that the opposition will react vigorously, organizing massive protests that could resemble the turbulent demonstrations of 2017. At that time, the repression was brutal, resulting in a tragic toll of dead, injured, and detained. The uncertainty about how this new social uprising would be managed is concerning, given that the government has a plan of action to suppress any discontent.


As the election day approaches, the Venezuelan people find themselves at a historic crossroads, where the hope for change confronts the harsh reality of a system deeply entrenched in power. The decisions made in the coming hours could define the country's course for the next few years, and the world will be watching the events unfolding in this crisis-stricken nation. With democracy at stake and the future uncertain, citizens hope their voices will be heard in a process that many consider a turning point in their history.

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