Volcanic Alert in Iceland: Bárðarbunga's Activity Raises Eruption Concerns Amid Earthquakes

Experts are closely monitoring Iceland's Bárðarbunga volcano, the country’s second-largest, amid rising concerns of an imminent eruption. This warning comes after a significant seismic event in which over 130 earthquakes were recorded in a span of just five hours. The Icelandic Meteorological Office (IMO) has raised the aviation colour-code for Bárðarbunga from green to yellow, indicating heightened volcanic activity that may pose risks to air travel due to potential ash emissions. The recent seismic activity began early Tuesday morning, with the most intense earthquakes occurring around 6 AM UTC. The largest earthquake registered a magnitude of 5.1, which can cause minor damage, and several other quakes measured magnitude 3 or higher. Although activity has begun to decrease since then, the region remains active, with ongoing earthquake occurrences. Bárðarbunga, situated beneath Iceland's extensive Vatnajökull glacier, last erupted from 2014 to 2015, producing significant volumes of sulfur dioxide and impacting air quality. However, that eruption primarily affected air travel locally, with relatively little volcanic ash dispersed into global air routes. The last major event was notable for being the largest volcanic eruption Iceland has experienced in over three centuries, lasting nearly six months, but it occurred in a remote area, limiting its impact on population centers and infrastructure. The IMO highlighted that the current seismic unrest is consistent with increased pressure from magma accumulation within the volcano, a condition that has been developing since the last eruption. With the volcano's unique structure—partly covered by a glacier—scientists are wary of the potential for phreatomagmatic eruptions, which occur when magma interacts explosively with meltwater from the glacier. Seismologists point out that Iceland’s geographical location makes it especially susceptible to volcanic activity. Nestled on the Mid-Atlantic Ridge, the country is positioned between two tectonic plates, which are gradually moving apart. The activity at Bárðarbunga follows a pattern seen in other recent eruptions in the region, particularly at Fagradalsfjall and Sundhnúkur, where similar earthquake swarms preceded volcanic activity. Valentin Troll, a professor of petrology and geochemistry, cautioned that while the current conditions could lead to an eruption, they do not guarantee one will occur. He noted that the unrest is in addition to ongoing inflation in the volcanic system, suggesting that developments toward a new eruption might be on the horizon. However, he emphasized the uncertainty, stating that earthquake swarms don’t always lead to eruptions. As the situation develops, both residents and authorities remain vigilant. The remoteness of Bárðarbunga under the ice cap means that, should an eruption occur, the immediate risk to populated areas may be less severe compared to eruptions in more accessible locations. Nonetheless, the specter of past eruptions, particularly the chaos caused by the Eyjafjallajökull eruption in 2010, lingers in the minds of locals and air travel authorities alike, reminding them of the potential for widespread disruption from volcanic activity.