Learning from the Past: Urgent Need for Tsunami Preparedness in New Zealand

As we reflect on the catastrophic events of the past, it becomes increasingly clear that the lessons learned from historical tsunamis must not be ignored in our preparations for future disasters. This sentiment is echoed by distinguished researcher David Johnston, a professor of disaster management, who emphasizes the critical need to heed the warnings of past tsunamis, such as the one that struck New Zealand's east coast decades before the infamous 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami. In an age marked by a growing understanding of natural disasters, it is disconcerting that New Zealand has experienced significant tsunami events before, only to let the urgency of preparedness fall to the wayside after the initial response. Johnston's research highlights two major tsunami incidents—the first in 1947 and the second in 1960—that serve as stark reminders of the potential devastation that can occur, often without warning. The 1947 tsunami, triggered by a 7.0 magnitude earthquake, remains a monumental event in New Zealand's history. It generated waves as high as 12 meters along the Tairāwhiti-Gisborne coastline, inundating 115 kilometers of land and causing significant damage. Remarkably, despite the sheer force of the waves that swept homes off their foundations and left people clinging to rooftops for safety, there were no fatalities. Experts attribute this fortunate outcome to luck rather than preparedness, a reality that Johnston argues could have been different with better awareness and readiness. Fast forward to 1960, when a 9.5 magnitude earthquake in Chile sent shockwaves across the Pacific, culminating in a tsunami that struck New Zealand hours later. Again, the nation was caught off guard, suffering considerable property damage but avoiding loss of life. Johnston asserts that these events were missed opportunities for enhancing disaster management practices in the country, with the warning systems that followed not sufficiently implemented or maintained. The stakes have never been higher as the threat of another tsunami looms large. Recent studies indicate a 26 percent chance of a major earthquake along the Hikurangi subduction zone in the next 50 years—an event that could trigger a series of destructive waves. Emergency response manager Ben Green warns that a Hikurangi rupture could inundate Gisborne, with its population of 38,000, within half an hour, underscoring the need for proactive measures. In response to these growing concerns, local authorities are focused on raising public awareness about tsunami risks. Initiatives such as the National Emergency Management Agency's "catastrophic handbook" aim to provide guidance on how to respond to the worst-case scenarios. Public presentations and community engagement efforts are increasingly vital to ensure that residents are not only aware of the historic precedents but are also equipped with the knowledge to act swiftly when nature strikes. Johnston's ongoing project to delve into the archives of the 1947 tsunami seeks to reinforce the narratives of those who lived through the events, creating a powerful tool for education and awareness. By personalizing the stories of the past, Johnston hopes to instill a deeper understanding of the natural signals that accompany such disasters, much like young Tilly Smith did two decades ago when she recognized the telltale signs of an impending tsunami. As we stand on the precipice of potential disaster, it is clear that we must learn from our history. The stories of survival, the accounts of near misses, and the warnings from yesteryear serve as crucial reminders that preparation is not merely a choice but an imperative. Only by acknowledging the lessons of the past can we hope to safeguard our communities and future generations from the devastating impact of tsunamis.