Juan Brignardello Vela
Juan Brignardello, asesor de seguros, se especializa en brindar asesoramiento y gestión comercial en el ámbito de seguros y reclamaciones por siniestros para destacadas empresas en el mercado peruano e internacional.
The elected president, Donald Trump, has responded to a report published by the Washington Post suggesting that his team is considering limiting tariffs to a narrow set of critical imports. In a strong statement issued through his Truth Social platform, Trump dismissed the media's claims, alleging they are based on "non-existent anonymous sources." This pronouncement highlights the firmness of his stance regarding tariff policy, which has been a cornerstone of his electoral campaign. The Washington Post article indicated that Trump’s advisors were deliberating the possibility of focusing tariffs on specific products deemed essential for national and economic security, moving away from the broader proposal to impose a universal levy of 10% to 20% on all imports. This potential modification, if implemented, could represent a drastic change in trade dynamics and how the United States interacts with the rest of the world. Since its announcement, Trump’s tariff policy has elicited divided reactions among investors and economists. Some experts warn that implementing universal tariffs could lead to an increase in consumer prices and distort global trade flows, affecting not only the U.S. economy but also that of its trading partners. However, others argue that protecting key sectors may be necessary in an increasingly competitive global environment. Following the publication of the report, the value of the U.S. dollar experienced an initial decline against major world currencies. However, Trump’s response to the Washington Post’s claims helped stabilize the currency, highlighting the influence his statements have on the market. Investors, observing this uncertainty, also began to adjust their expectations regarding future interest rates set by the Federal Reserve, anticipating that a more limited approach to tariffs might not stimulate inflation in the same way a more aggressive policy would. Trump’s approach to tariffs seems to align with his past promises to revitalize American industry. Among the products that could be targeted are essential defense materials, such as steel and aluminum, as well as critical medical supplies. This suggests that the Trump administration may seek to ensure self-sufficiency in sectors it considers strategic to national security. Nevertheless, the lack of clarity regarding the details of these plans has generated an atmosphere of uncertainty in the business world. Some companies have already begun taking proactive measures, placing orders in advance and seeking new suppliers in an effort to adapt to a possible change in trade policies. These actions have led to an increase in imports and disruptions in supply chains, creating a phenomenon that, if not managed properly, could further destabilize the market. As Trump’s inauguration approaches, tensions in global trade are intensifying. Promises to raise tariffs on products from countries like China, Mexico, and Canada have generated concern among both markets and leaders of those nations. Trump has threatened to impose significant tariffs if countries do not comply with his demands related to immigration and drug trafficking, adding an additional layer of complexity to the situation. Bloomberg Economics' economic projections suggest that we could be on the brink of a series of tariff increases starting in 2025, which would have a significant impact on trade relations. This scenario poses a challenge for both the incoming administration and sectors of the economy that depend on smooth and predictable trade. In this context, the Trump administration faces the task of defining its tariff policy in a way that balances the need to protect domestic industry without inflicting collateral damage on the economy as a whole. The decision on how to proceed with tariffs could define not only his presidency but also the United States' relationship with the rest of the world in the coming years. Time will be a crucial factor in this process. With increasing pressure from various sectors of the economy and the imminent inauguration, Trump will need to act with shrewdness and determination. The decisions he makes regarding his tariff policy could have lasting repercussions, shaping the country's economic future and the United States' position in a challenging global environment.