Juan Brignardello Vela
Juan Brignardello, asesor de seguros, se especializa en brindar asesoramiento y gestión comercial en el ámbito de seguros y reclamaciones por siniestros para destacadas empresas en el mercado peruano e internacional.
The data published this Monday by the National Institute of Statistics (INE) has revealed a significant increase in the household savings rate, which has reached 14.2%, marking its highest level in three years. This rise of 1.2 percentage points compared to the third quarter of last year, when the rate was at 12.8%, has been received with interest and expectation by economists and analysts. This phenomenon could indicate greater prudence among citizens in an uncertain global economic context. The gross disposable income of households has shown notable growth, increasing by 18.019 billion euros, representing an 8.2% rise to a total of 237.811 billion euros. This increase in disposable income is a key factor contributing to the rise in the savings rate. With more resources at their disposal, households seem to be opting to save a larger proportion of their income, which could be seen as a strategy for financial security in the face of potential future economic adversities. In contrast to this increase in saving capacity, household spending has also grown, reaching 221.243 billion euros, which equates to a 6.6% increase compared to the same period last year. Despite this rise in spending, households have managed to increase their savings by 5.032 billion euros, totaling 16.997 billion in this third quarter. This combination of increased savings and spending could indicate a recovery in consumer confidence, albeit tempered by a more conservative attitude. The financing capacity of households has changed significantly, shifting from a financing need of 3.217 billion euros in the third quarter of 2023 to a financing capacity of 398 million euros in the current quarter. This drastic change underscores a shift in the financial dynamics of households, which have managed to stabilize their economic situation and reduce their dependence on external financing. This aspect is particularly relevant at a time when interest rates have been rising. Regarding other economic sectors, non-financial corporations also showed a positive trend, with a financing capacity of 1.790 billion euros in this quarter, compared to 134 million euros in the same period last year. This increase in companies' ability to self-finance suggests a more stable business environment and possibly a recovery in investment. On the other hand, the public administration sector has maintained modest growth in its financing capacity, which increased by 0.1% year-on-year to reach 9.318 billion euros. This figure could reflect the ongoing pressure on public budgets in a context of growing demand for social services and infrastructure. On a broader level, gross national income closed the quarter at 391.297 billion euros, while gross national disposable income stood at 387.069 billion euros. Both figures have seen an increase of 1.4% compared to the previous quarter when seasonal and calendar effects are removed. This sustained growth is a promising sign for the national economy as a whole. The country's financing capacity in relation to the rest of the world has been set at 19.407 billion euros in this quarter, representing 4.9% of the period's GDP. This surplus in the balance of payments is a positive indicator that can contribute to the stability of the exchange rate and to foreign investor confidence. The strengthening of the national economy's financing capacity, which has remained at 4.2% of GDP, suggests that, although there are economic challenges on the horizon, the economy appears to be on a path of recovery and stabilization. However, this outlook must be approached with caution, as the global situation remains volatile and can affect the confidence of both consumers and businesses. In conclusion, the recent increase in the household savings rate, along with the improvement in disposable income and financing capacity, presents a mixed picture that reflects both the resilience of citizens and the need for constant vigilance against potential economic imbalances. As we move towards the end of the year, it will be crucial for economic authorities and society as a whole to adapt to these changes and continue promoting responsible financial habits.