The turbulent 2024: global crisis and the resurgence of democracy in politics

The year 2024 has been a tumultuous period for the world, characterized by widespread suffering and armed conflicts that have left an indelible mark on three continents. International attention has focused on crises such as those in Gaza, Lebanon, and Ukraine, but it has been the war in Sudan that has claimed the most lives. This grim landscape has intensified geopolitical tensions, leading many to wonder if the multilateral order established after World War II is on the verge of collapsing. Despite the devastation caused by war, 2024 has also revealed the resilience of some democracies, including that of the United States. This contrast suggests that, although chaos and violence dominate the headlines, there is an underlying narrative of hope. In a world where autocrats seem to act with impunity, several countries have demonstrated that the power of elections and the will of the people can bring about significant political change. This year, 76 nations, representing more than half of the world's population, went to the polls. However, not all elections were representative. In places like Russia and Venezuela, electoral processes were marred by a lack of transparency and manipulation. Despite this, there have been examples of democracy triumphing, such as the recent change in government in the United Kingdom, where voters chose to end a long Conservative mandate. India has also stood out this year, where the government of Narendra Modi, increasingly criticized for its focus on Hindu nationalism, was forced to form a coalition after losing popular support. This change is emblematic of a deeper yearning among voters worldwide: the search for leaders who prioritize economic and social well-being over political ideology. In the United States, Donald Trump's electoral victory marked a significant shift. Despite a start filled with tensions and warnings about possible acts of violence, Trump's election suggests that the country may be on a path toward political stability, at least compared to previous years. The growing participation of African Americans and Hispanics within the Republican electorate also indicates a shift in the political dynamic, which could reinvent the way identity is approached in American politics. From an economic perspective, the United States has shown remarkable dynamism, growing at a rate three times that of other G7 members. The S&P 500 index, for its part, has seen an increase of over 20% in 2024. This growth, partially driven by high public spending, has strengthened the U.S. economy, although concerns about protectionism and its impact on the future persist. In contrast, the Chinese economy has faced significant slowdown, now seen as part of a deeper pattern related to its authoritarian political system. President Xi Jinping's economic management, which has preferred to forgo stimulating consumption for fear of rising debt, has begun to lose international appeal, especially in a context where its model has proven less efficient. The case of Russia also underscores the risks of authoritarianism. Despite some battlefield successes, its economy is being dragged down by the war, and inflation is rising. Resources that could have been used to improve the country's future are being wasted in a conflict that seems unlikely to have a quick resolution. The reliance on force to sustain a regime is becoming unsustainable, leaving leaders in a precarious position. However, democracies are not immune to challenges. In Europe, political instability has increased, partly due to governments' inability to confront Russian aggression and adapt to new economic realities. This vulnerability is a reminder that while democracies can be strong, they also require constant attention and action to thrive. The coming years will be crucial in determining the course of the United States and the world. Trump's presidency offers both opportunities and risks. With the possibility of forging new international relationships and resolving conflicts, the success of his term will depend on his ability to navigate a complex and often contradictory environment. As we move into 2025, the lingering question is whether democracies will be able to seize the opportunities presented to them and, ultimately, how they will face the challenges ahead.