The U.S. economy at the center of the electoral debate: who was more successful?

The U.S. economy has become a central topic in the current electoral contest, with candidates from both parties presenting their visions of how the country has evolved under their respective administrations. While Vice President Kamala Harris claims that the economy is the strongest in the world, former President Donald Trump argues that his administration created the "greatest economy in history," which has been "ruined" by Biden. This polarized narrative has led to a thorough analysis of various economic indicators to assess the economic performance of the United States in recent years. One of the main economic indicators is Gross Domestic Product (GDP), which reflects the total value of goods and services produced in the country. The COVID-19 pandemic had a devastating impact on the economy, with a sharp decline in GDP due to business closures. However, both during Trump’s presidency and under Biden's administration, a notable recovery has been observed. In this regard, the United States has recorded the strongest pandemic recovery among G7 countries, although the GDP growth rate during Trump's term was 2.3%, while under Biden it has been 2.2%, indicating that both presidents have performed quite similarly in this aspect. Inflation has been another hot topic in the economic debate. During the early years of Biden's presidency, inflation reached alarming levels, peaking at 9.1% in June 2022. Although Trump has criticized this figure, it is important to contextualize that inflation levels above 9% were recorded in previous years, with the last occurrence being in 1981. Currently, inflation hovers around 3%, but it remains higher than when Trump left office. Food prices, on the other hand, saw an increase of 13.5% in the year ending August 2022, although they have stabilized in recent months. A point emphasized by the Biden administration is job growth. In his early years, Trump generated nearly 6.7 million jobs, while Biden has seen an increase of almost 16 million since taking office. The figures are striking, and Biden takes pride in achieving the "fastest job growth in U.S. history." However, this growth has been largely driven by the post-pandemic economic recovery, raising the question of whether it would have been equally robust had Trump remained in power. The unemployment rate is also a key indicator. Before the pandemic, Trump had achieved an unemployment rate of 3.5%, which rose to around 7% by the end of his term due to the health crisis. Under Biden, the unemployment rate has dropped to a historic low of 3.4% in January 2023, although it has since increased again to 4.3%. These fluctuations reflect the challenges both administrations face in the context of a constantly changing global economy. Regarding wages, the situation is more complex. During Trump's presidency, wages showed consistent growth, similar to that of his predecessor. However, the wage increases recorded during the pandemic were largely due to job losses in low-income sectors, inflating the average wage of workers who retained their jobs. Under Biden, although weekly wages have increased, the rise has not been sufficient to overcome the impact of inflation, leading to a decrease in real purchasing power. The stock market has also been an indicator of economic health, although it does not always reflect the overall reality of the economy. During Trump's administration, the Dow Jones index reached historic highs before plummeting due to the pandemic. Since then, the market has recovered and reached new records under Biden, generating cautious optimism among investors, although recent market fluctuations have raised concerns about economic stability. Comparisons between the two administrations show that, while both presidents have faced unique challenges, they have also had successes that deserve recognition. The U.S. economy, as observed, is a complex and multifaceted entity that cannot be assessed solely through a single indicator. In times of political and economic uncertainty, it is essential for voters to approach this data with a critical sense, recognizing that economic reality is often more nuanced than political narratives might suggest. As the presidential campaign progresses, the debate over the economy is likely to remain a crucial topic that could influence the outcome of the elections. With both candidates trying to capitalize on their achievements and criticize their opponent, voters will need to carefully evaluate the claims and data presented, as the economy continues its course in an uncertain global environment. Undoubtedly, the state of the economy will remain a central theme on the political agenda in the United States, with repercussions that will extend beyond the electoral contest and affect the country’s economic future.