"September in Mexico: Nostalgia and Preparation in Light of the Collective Seismic Memory"

Every year, the arrival of September in Mexico evokes a mix of nostalgia and anxiety among the population, rekindling memories of seismic tragedies that have left a mark on the collective memory. September 19 has become an emblematic date, not only because of the pain it carries but also due to the coincidence of two of the most devastating earthquakes in the recent history of the country: those that occurred in 1985 and 2017. This context has generated a climate of unease that intensifies each year, especially among those who experienced these disasters. Seismology experts, such as Dr. Miguel Ángel Jaimes from the Institute of Engineering at UNAM, have analyzed the relationship between this date and significant earthquakes. In his 2019 study, Dr. Jaimes used probability methods to determine whether there was a link between September 19 and the occurrence of earthquakes of magnitude 7 or more. The results were surprising: the probability of experiencing three earthquakes of such magnitude on the same date is extremely low. Dr. Jaimes emphasizes that although the fact that two destructive earthquakes have occurred on the same date may give the impression of a pattern, it is actually more a matter of chance. "Coincidences may seem significant, but calculations suggest it is pure coincidence," he explains. To illustrate this assertion, the researcher compares the low probability of a third major earthquake on this date to uncommon events, such as the impact of a 2-kilometer-diameter comet on Earth, winning the lottery 6/49, or being attacked by a shark. Despite this scientific perspective, anxiety persists among the population. September not only evokes memories of loss and suffering but also tests the country's preparedness for emergencies. Authorities have implemented various response strategies, but the collective memory does not easily forget the fears generated by these seismic events. Mexico's geography, which places it in a geologically active zone, is a factor that cannot be ignored. Although statistical studies may suggest that the probability of a strong earthquake in September is low, the fact that our country is in a region prone to tectonic movements means that a strong earthquake can occur at any time, regardless of commemorative dates. The way society prepares for and responds to these events is crucial. Education and awareness about seismic safety are tools that can make the difference between an effective response and chaos. Preparation campaigns and evacuation simulations are practices that must be maintained and reinforced, especially in September, a month that serves as a reminder of vulnerability to natural disasters. As September 19 approaches, it is vital to remember that, although the probability of a destructive earthquake on that date is low, history shows that nature does not follow a calendar. Therefore, authorities and the public must maintain a constant state of alert, not only this month but throughout the entire year. The fear and anxiety these dates evoke should not lead to paralysis but rather serve as an incentive for both institutions and citizens to remain informed and prepared. Prevention and education are our best tools against natural phenomena. Ultimately, September 19 is a date that, beyond the fears it raises, should remind us of the strength and ingenuity of the Mexican people. History has left valuable lessons that, if taken into account, can help mitigate the impact of future earthquakes, allowing society to move forward with resilience and hope.