Significant decrease in forest fires in August 2024, but caution is necessary.

August 2024 closes with a figure that, while hopeful, invites reflection: a 46% reduction in burned forest area compared to the average of the last ten years. This notable decrease in the number of hectares ravaged by fire is largely due to the favorable combination of climatic conditions—moderate heat and adequate rainfall—that have characterized the year to date. According to the latest report from the Ministry for Ecological Transition, from January 1 to August 25, 42,314 hectares have been recorded as burned, which represents a significantly lower figure than the 78,000 hectares averaged over the last decade. The number of fires has also decreased, with 4,742 incidents recorded so far this year, a figure lower than the average of 7,359 fires in the last decade. This scenario resembles that of 2018, a year that saw 4,705 fires, although the affected area is more than double. Elena Hernández, head of the Wildfire Defense Service, is cautious in labeling this year as favorable, emphasizing that the statistics on fires show a cyclical pattern, with years of greater impact followed by those with less. The statistics should not lead to complacency. August has seen a significant fire in Andújar, Jaén, that devastated 3,600 hectares and caused the evacuation of hundreds of people. This figure, while concerning, pales in comparison to the devastating fires of other years, which have exceeded 10,000 or 20,000 hectares. However, concern persists as the trend suggests that, despite the lower number of fires, the area burned is increasing. Critical months for the fire season remain, as September and March are traditionally the months with the highest fire risk. Hernández indicates that the weather has been an ally this year, with rains keeping vegetation greener and less prone to burning. Additionally, social awareness has helped prevent fires, as 80% of fires are linked to human activities, primarily negligence and intentional acts. Forestry engineer Ferran Dalmau highlights the importance of weather conditions and the distribution of rainfall, which have been favorable thus far. However, he also points out that the increase in plant biomass due to the rainfall could generate more fuel in the future, complicating the situation. Despite the positive data this year, Dalmau emphasizes the lack of investment in prevention, arguing that wildfire policy is not a priority on the government’s agenda. The need for a continuous focus on wildfire prevention is critical. While a decrease in the number and area of fires has been achieved, experts warn that large fires have not yet been reduced, with a total of 16 still present to date. This figure is alarming, considering that only three large fires were recorded in 2018 under similar circumstances. Lourdes Hernández, a wildfire specialist at WWF, warns that it is necessary to prepare for a future where extreme weather conditions may arise. Climate change is reshaping how wildfires occur and are managed, forcing society to adapt to a new landscape, where prevention and preparedness are key to avoiding disasters. As the fire season progresses, it is crucial to recognize that rain and favorable conditions are not a permanent solution. Proper management of forest areas and investment in prevention are fundamental aspects that will continue to be necessary to face the growing risk of fires. A lack of action in this regard could result in an even more severe crisis in the future. The decrease in burned area this year could be an encouraging sign, but the underlying reality must not be overlooked: the abandonment of the primary sector and the lack of adequate policies to manage fire risk. While progress has been made, it is clear that a more holistic and sustained approach is needed to ensure that forests and communities are protected in the years to come. Finally, the contrast between this year's figures and those of previous years should not lead us to complacency. The safety in wildfire management cannot be left to chance; a collective commitment is necessary to continue working on prevention, education, and the improvement of our fire management policies, thereby ensuring the protection of our forests and the safety of our communities.