Mexico faces challenges in nearshoring despite its export potential.

The figures for international trade are revealing a concerning trend for Mexico, which, despite having a privileged location and being a leader in the production of various products, is not effectively capitalizing on the nearshoring phenomenon. A recent study by Bain & Company highlights that Mexico's exports to the United States have grown by 34% between 2019 and 2023, a figure that contrasts significantly with the 54% increase in exports from Asian countries such as Vietnam, Malaysia, India, and Indonesia to the same destination. This disparity raises questions about the country's trade strategies and its ability to adapt to a constantly changing market. Jordi Ciuró, a partner at Bain & Company, pointed out that Mexico's performance is surprising, given that its geographical proximity should translate into greater economic benefits. However, the analysis reveals that more than half of the export growth from these Asian countries corresponds to products that Mexico already produces and could offer to the United States. This highlights a lack of competitiveness that could have serious consequences for the Mexican economy if appropriate measures are not taken. The sectors in which Mexico could have intensified its participation in the U.S. market include electrical equipment, machinery, mechanical components, and metals, with a potential value exceeding $50 billion. This scenario suggests that, despite the country's productive capacity, the strategy for seizing opportunities is failing. Nevertheless, the study indicates that if the country can resolve existing bottlenecks, its export value could grow by $500 billion by 2030, instead of the $310 billion projected under inertial growth. However, statistics are not the only indicator of the state of nearshoring in Mexico. Armando Flores, senior manager at Bain & Company, has highlighted several factors that limit the country's development in this area. The lack of a robust ecosystem of production clusters, deficiencies in logistics infrastructure, and restricted supply of resources such as energy and water are just some of the obstacles that companies face in their pursuit to expand operations. Additionally, the shortage of qualified human talent and the high competitiveness of other countries have placed Mexico in a disadvantageous position. High financing costs and insecurity have also become variables that add complexity to the landscape. The combination of all these elements suggests that, despite the opportunities presented by nearshoring, the country has much work to do to effectively position itself in this new trade context. The slowdown in export growth between 2019 and 2023, which stands at a modest 12% after a 17% increase in the previous period, is a clear indicator that something is not functioning properly. This trend should prompt reflection among the country's economic policymakers, who must consider implementing more effective strategies to promote growth and competitiveness in the international arena. Nearshoring presents a unique opportunity for countries close to the United States, and Mexico should be in a favorable position to attract investments and expand its presence in the U.S. market. However, current conditions suggest that if necessary changes are not made, the country could continue to lose ground to its Asian competitors. In conclusion, the current situation of Mexican exports and nearshoring requires urgent attention and a renewed approach. For Mexico to fully leverage its potential and take advantage of changes in global supply chains, it is essential to address existing challenges and create a more favorable environment for investment and trade. The window of opportunity is open, but time is limited. The question that remains is: is Mexico prepared to act?