The U.S. is making progress in renewable energy, but politics could hinder advancement.

In recent years, the United States has witnessed a remarkable development in the field of renewable energy, a trend that has reached unprecedented levels. Today, nearly 30% of the country's electric capacity comes from renewable sources, largely thanks to federal incentives in the form of tax deductions. This boom reflects the growing commitment of the country toward a more sustainable energy matrix that is less dependent on fossil fuels, a change that has become crucial in the context of climate change. Despite this progress, public support for renewable energy has generated tensions between the two major political parties. The Inflation Reduction Act, a landmark piece of legislation under the Biden administration, was passed solely with Democratic support. Although its title does not explicitly mention renewable energy, the IRA essentially represents the most significant investment in climate change mitigation projects in U.S. history, with an estimated impact that could reach one trillion dollars. The IRA not only extends existing tax credits but also introduces new incentives for various clean energy sources, promoting local manufacturing of electric vehicles, batteries, and other essential equipment. These incentives aim to strengthen energy efficiency and the resilience of the transmission grid, in addition to maintaining the accelerated depreciation of assets. Tax credits for energy storage projects and emerging technologies such as hydrogen fuel cells are also included. It is interesting to note that the IRA maintains a credit structure that adapts based on the technology used and compliance with certain economic objectives. This means that credits can vary depending on whether adequate wages are guaranteed or training programs are implemented, adding a labor equity component to the energy transition process. The benefits of these credits are significant, with rates of up to 50% of the costs of a solar project, and even 70% in certain cases. However, for many developers, the complexity of the tax credit system can be a barrier. The need to find investors who can take advantage of these credits has led to the creation of sophisticated financial structures, which are often costly and difficult to access. To facilitate liquidity in this market, the IRA introduced a new incentive that allows project owners to transfer their credits to third parties in exchange for cash payments, a measure that could broaden access to financing in the sector. Since the implementation of the IRA, over $114 billion has been committed to investments, primarily in battery factories. However, the execution of these projects faces significant challenges, such as inflation, rising interest rates, and supply chain delays. Despite these challenges, the political question poses an even greater risk to the future of renewable energy in the country. Vice President Kamala Harris is seen as a continuator of Biden's renewable energy policy, while former President Donald Trump advocates for increased hydrocarbon production and opposes the promotion of clean energy. Although he has distanced his position from the radical "Agenda 2025," which favors a fossil fuel-centric energy model, his influence could mark a shift in the political direction of the country. The future of the IRA could be at stake depending on the outcome of the November elections. While it is unlikely that the law will be completely repealed if Trump and the Republicans regain control of Congress, partial changes that limit the scope of incentives or shorten their duration cannot be ruled out. Additionally, the current president could slow the progress of certain programs through administrative measures. In summary, while a change in administration could mean a stagnation in the energy transition, it does not necessarily imply a total setback. The commitment to renewable energy seems to be solidifying, although politics will continue to play a crucial role in the intensity and speed of this change. The energy community will be closely watching the results of November, aware that the decisions made during those days will influence the future of the sector in the United States and, consequently, the global fight against climate change.