Modest growth of national production in June 2024 reveals economic challenges.

The National Institute of Statistics and Informatics (INEI) has published its report on national production for June 2024, revealing a modest growth of 0.21% compared to the same month in the previous year. This increase, while positive, reflects a complex economic context that is manifested in uneven performance across the country’s various productive sectors. The sectors that showed outstanding performance include Other Services, Transportation, Storage and Messaging, as well as Commerce and Telecommunications. In contrast, key sectors such as Mining and Hydrocarbons, Construction, and Agriculture faced a contracting behavior, raising a series of questions about long-term economic health. One factor that has influenced production performance in June is the reduction of one day of productive activity, as June 7 was a national holiday this year, whereas in 2023 that day was a working day. This has resulted in the outcomes being not entirely representative of the economic trend, further complicating the interpretation of these data. According to the INEI report, productive activity in the first half of 2024 experienced a growth of 2.49%, suggesting that despite the ups and downs, recovery remains possible. In the agricultural sector, a decline of 1.62% was observed, driven by a significant drop in agricultural production which reached 3.06%. This performance has been primarily due to the reduction in the production of essential crops such as olives and cotton, which have shown declines of up to 79.9% and 69.4% respectively. This context raises serious concerns about food security and the ability of farmers to recover under adverse conditions. Despite the contraction in the agricultural subsector, the livestock subsector reported a growth of 1.80%, demonstrating the resilience of meat and dairy production. This contrast highlights the necessary diversification in agricultural production to face market fluctuations and adverse weather conditions that disproportionately affect certain crops. One of the sectors that has recorded a notable advance is fishing, which grew by 56.77% in June 2024. This impressive increase is mainly due to the extraction of marine species, which rose by 74.85%, with a total of 241,565 tons caught. This growth is indicative of the fishing sector's capacity to recover and adapt, although consideration must be given to how this increase could impact the long-term sustainability of fishery resources. On the other hand, mining and hydrocarbons have been negatively affected, recording a decrease of 7.47%. The drop in the production of metals such as zinc and copper raises questions about investment in this sector and its ability to contribute to the country’s economic growth. Nonetheless, a slight increase in the production of certain metals like molybdenum and silver has been observed, offering a glimmer of hope in a complicated landscape. The construction sector has shown a contraction of 2.40%, reflecting lower domestic cement consumption, one of the main inputs in this field. This reduction in construction activity is accompanied by an increase in the physical progress of public works, suggesting that the government may be compensating for the fall in private investment with public projects. Commerce, another pillar of economic growth, has reported an increase of 2.28%, driven by better performance in wholesale sales. This growth is encouraging and suggests that, despite the challenges, consumers are responding positively to commercial initiatives, especially in the context of the winter season. Similarly, the accommodation and restaurant sector has grown by 4.66%, reflecting a recovery in tourism and service activity. This increase is a good indicator of the sector's revitalization following the restrictions imposed by the pandemic and could offer opportunities for job creation and income generation in the future. Finally, despite the challenges present in various sectors, the INEI report allows us to glimpse that the national economy is in a process of adaptation. Diversification and adaptation to new realities will be key to overcoming current difficulties and achieving sustained growth in the future. Continuous attention to economic indicators and the implementation of effective policies will be fundamental to fostering a favorable environment that promotes inclusive and sustainable economic development.