Stability of the dollar in Peru amid expectations of decisions by the Federal Reserve.

This Wednesday, August 14, the exchange rate in Peru shows notable stability, with the dollar remaining at a level of S/ 3.744. This trend is set against a backdrop where markets are awaiting the decisions that the Federal Reserve of the United States will make regarding interest rates. The situation is significant, as the latest economic data from the northern country creates a favorable environment for a possible rate cut, which could influence capital flows towards emerging economies like Peru's. Throughout the day, the exchange rate started at S/ 3.744, with no changes compared to the previous day's close. This level represents a slight accumulated decline of 1.00% compared to the last recorded quote at the end of 2023, which was at S/ 3.807. The stability in the exchange rate is a relief for economic agents, who are attentive to fluctuations that may arise from foreign monetary policy decisions. In the parallel market, quotes vary slightly, with the dollar buying at S/ 3.730 and selling at S/ 3.755, according to data from the portal cuantoestaeldolar.pe. This difference between the official and parallel markets is an indicator of public expectations regarding the U.S. currency. Meanwhile, in the banking sector, the average quote is at S/ 3.739 for buying and S/ 3.747 for selling. These values show slight competition among financial entities, which are looking to attract customers in an environment of relatively stable exchange rates. The global context is also crucial, as last Tuesday, Latin American markets experienced a rebound, driven by the release of positive inflation data in the United States. This behavior suggests that the U.S. economy could be heading towards a phase of monetary easing, which could begin in September, all aimed at not affecting the growth of the world's largest economy. One of the main references for this economic data is the report on producer prices in the United States, which showed a smaller-than-expected increase in July. This result, which indicates moderation in inflation, fuels expectations that the Federal Reserve could opt for a more lenient approach, which would be well received by emerging markets, including those in Peru. The depreciation of the Peruvian sol, which stood at 0.16% at 3.749/3.750 units per dollar, could be interpreted as a response to this international situation. Despite the local currency's decline, the benchmark of the Lima Stock Exchange behaves positively, registering an increase of 0.21% to 753.14 points, indicating that investors still trust in the solvency of the local market. In this context, analysts suggest that businesspeople and consumers should be attentive to the signals emitted by the Federal Reserve, as a change in rates could provoke significant movements in the exchange rate and in the Peruvian economy in general. Finally, the exchange market will continue to be a key indicator for understanding the economic health of the country. The coming days will be crucial for monitoring how negotiations and decisions in the United States unfold, and how these will influence the behavior of the dollar and, consequently, Peru's economy. The stability of the exchange rate so far is an encouraging sign, but global challenges remain latent.