Juan Brignardello Vela
Juan Brignardello, asesor de seguros, se especializa en brindar asesoramiento y gestión comercial en el ámbito de seguros y reclamaciones por siniestros para destacadas empresas en el mercado peruano e internacional.
The recent decision by the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) to cut interest rates has marked a significant change in the landscape of the Government Treasury Certificates (Cetes), which had offered yields above 11% for more than a year and a half. This period of high yields has come to an end, generating concern among investors and savers who had grown accustomed to these attractive rates. Last week, Banxico announced a reduction of 25 basis points in the reference rate, bringing it down to 10.75%. This move, unexpected for some analysts, has had a direct impact on the yields that Cetes can currently offer. In the auction held this week, all terms of the Cetes registered yields below 11%, marking a shift in market expectations. The new yields for Cetes are as follows: for the 28-day term, yields of 10.65% are offered; for three months, yields rise to 10.80%; for six months, yields are reported at 10.85%; and for the longest term, two years, a yield of 10.64% is offered. These numbers indicate that investors will need to readjust their expectations and strategies in light of a lower rate environment. Analysts from financial institutions, such as Intercam, have pointed out that Banxico's decision to reduce the interest rate not only reflects a response to the current inflation situation but also suggests the beginning of a cycle of reductions in the reference rate. Although Banxico has revised its inflation estimates upwards, the dovish tone of its statement has left the door open for future cuts. This new context presents challenges and opportunities for investors. On one hand, for those who had found Cetes to be a safe and attractive option, the decline in yields may translate into lower benefits. On the other hand, it may encourage savers to seek more profitable investment alternatives, which could lead to an increase in demand for other financial products. However, the outlook is not without uncertainty. Inflation remains a concerning factor, and although Banxico has taken measures to mitigate its effects, consumers continue to feel the pressure on their wallets. As the economy adjusts to these changes, it is likely that consumers and businesses will face a more restrictive credit environment. Another aspect to consider is the reaction of the investing public to this new reality. The decrease in yields on such safe instruments as Cetes may lead to a change in the perception of risk. Some investors might opt to explore riskier options in search of better yields, which could destabilize the existing balance in the stock market. With the recent rate cut, a period of analysis and reflection opens up for savers and investors. Banxico's decision not only affects Cetes but could also have repercussions on other financial instruments and on the behavior of the economy as a whole. The key will be to observe how the coming weeks unfold and how different market participants react. In conclusion, the farewell to yields above 11% in Cetes marks an important change in the financial landscape of the country. The decision by the Bank of Mexico reflects the complexity of the current economic situation and presents new challenges that investors will need to face in their pursuit of profitability. With the prospect of declining rates, it will be essential to stay well-informed and prepared to adapt to the new market conditions.