Crisis in Venezuela: allies of chavismo question the stability of the regime.

The current political landscape in Venezuela presents itself as an unexpected phenomenon for many, including former allies of the Chavista regime in the region, such as Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and former Argentine President Alberto Fernández. The imminent election this Sunday has led to a series of interactions and disagreements that reflect the accelerated decomposition of Nicolás Maduro's government, who inherited power from Hugo Chávez eleven years ago. The speed at which the dictatorship is collapsing has even surprised those who previously supported it. In the last 48 hours, the expressions from political and military actors have made it clear that the situation in Venezuela is more precarious than many had anticipated. Nicolás Maduro Guerra, the dictator's son, revealed that the family is already discussing a possible future in the opposition if the electoral results do not favor the regime. This statement is significant, as it suggests that within the Chavista power structure, they are beginning to contemplate the possibility of defeat, a notion that was unthinkable just a few years ago. General Vladimir Padrino López, Minister of Defense and a key figure in protecting the regime, surprised many by declaring that the Armed Forces will not side with either party in the electoral process. This position of "neutrality" is an unexpected turn that could indicate a shift in the power dynamics within the armed forces, which had previously shown loyalty to Maduro. Padrino's decision not to act as an arbiter in the elections marks a milestone that could influence the immediate future of the country. However, not all commanders share this conciliatory view. The head of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Domingo Hernández Lárez, has taken a more combative stance, publicly expressing his disdain for the opposition on social media. This division within the Armed Forces could indicate the regime's fragility and the lack of cohesion that was once its hallmark. Amid this climate of uncertainty, former Argentine President Alberto Fernández was preparing to act as an observer for the elections in Venezuela but was uninvited by Maduro himself. The justification Fernández received for this decision reveals the growing discomfort the regime feels towards external criticism, especially when it comes from historical allies. The distrust towards figures like Fernández and Lula highlights the precariousness of the international support that Chavismo once enjoyed. Lula, who in the past was a staunch defender of Chávez and Maduro, has expressed his displeasure with Maduro's alarmist statements about possible violent conflicts after the election. His words were echoed by Fernández, who also emphasized the need for the losing party to accept their defeat. This change in tone from leaders who had previously offered their unconditional support signals a shift in the perception of the regime in Caracas. The contact between Lula and Maduro, which was once characterized by closeness, has now become tense. Maduro even ironically suggested that Lula should have a "chamomile tea" while waiting for the election results. This comment, which reflects a mix of sarcasm and disdain, can be interpreted as an attempt to dismiss his allies' concerns about the direction of his government. For years, Lula and other Latin American leaders played a crucial role in legitimizing elections in Venezuela, often supporting Maduro with resources and political advice. However, the current situation makes it clear that the international backing that was once a pillar of Chavismo has begun to crumble, along with the regime itself. The climate of distrust and lack of support among former allies not only affects the international perception of the regime but could also have significant internal consequences. The possibility that the Armed Forces remain on the sidelines of the electoral conflict indicates that the regime could face resistance from within, something that has not been seen in the last decade. The decomposition of the Chavista regime is not only a phenomenon affecting Venezuela but also alters the political balance throughout Latin America. The loss of allies like Lula and Fernández is a sign of the times and opens the door to a new chapter in Venezuela's political history, where the transition to a new form of government could be closer than many imagine. The situation is undoubtedly an epilogue to Chavista kleptocracy, which, despite its attempts to remain in power, seems to be coming to an end.