The political transition in Venezuela in the face of the possible victory of the opposition: scenarios and challenges days before the elections.

The widespread expectation that the presidential candidate of the majority opposition, Edmundo González Urrutia, will win the election on July 28 raises scenarios that are linked to a potential political transition in Venezuela as has not occurred in the last 25 years. Just days before the most challenging presidential election in recent years for the government of Nicolás Maduro and the unified opposition, now led by María Corina Machado and González Urrutia, there are signs pointing to a hypothetical transition process based on the eventual results of the July 28 elections, according to political analysts consulted by El Pitazo. Amid an electoral process that is not proceeding normally, marked by advantages and political persecution by the government, the director of the Center for Political Studies and Government at the Andrés Bello Catholic University (Cepyg-UCAB), Benigno Alarcón, outlines four common elements in transition processes analyzed worldwide in recent years that are a reality in Venezuela, as reflected in polls and public opinion studies. "First, an election that implies the departure from power of those who control it. Second, a unified opposition around a leadership. Third, people being mobilized around that leadership to bring about change. Fourth, international pressure, which we have, not at the levels of 2019, but it exists and is increasing," detailed Alarcón. There is a fifth element that, according to Alarcón, is related to the internal fractures that can occur in authoritarian regimes -such as Venezuela- in situations similar to those that the government may face in light of the potential results of July 28. "The fifth element that we still do not see clearly, but that may exist, has to do with internal fractures. This is seen on election day or afterward, it is rare to see it before. We could witness an institutional breakdown that we will not see until election day," added Alarcón. If the institutional breakdown or internal fractures within the ruling coalition are not yet evident, it is clear in terms of popular support, which is eroded to the point that the government is facing its worst political and electoral moment since 2012. The 21-percentage-point gap between the candidacy of González Urrutia and Maduro, according to polls and public opinion studies, poses greater challenges with increasingly high political costs for the government. "The polls show a very large difference in favor of Edmundo González. An irreversible difference, and in a way, I am starting to notice a collapse within what remains of Chavismo, demoralized people who see that the situation is heading in another direction, leaving Maduro without the operational capacity to impose a coup: to say that he won on the 28th, when the polls show a very large difference," highlights the political scientist and expert in public opinion, José Vicente Carrasquero. As the presidential election date approaches, internal and external pressure increases. Maduro accuses "imperialism" of turning the electoral campaign in Venezuela into a global issue; however, the government - with irregularities and actions outside the law - has raised alarms both inside and outside the country. "This is the only election in the region with all the irregularities we have seen, and it has this aura that requires monitoring, that measures need to be taken regarding what is happening in the country. We are facing an atypical electoral process in the region," added Carrasquero. Regional ideological allies of the government such as the presidents of Brazil and Colombia, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Gustavo Petro, respectively, do not shy away from their concerns regarding the Venezuelan electoral context and what the government may be willing to do. "Petro and Lula are concerned about the results, as well as the U.S., because a possible continuation of Maduro in power would be a geopolitical catastrophe due to migration, hence the interest of other countries for Maduro to realize that he is not operating in a vacuum and that there is observation around," added Carrasquero. Two weeks ago, Lula expressed his desire for the elections in Venezuela to "proceed peacefully and for the results to be recognized by all." Petro, on the other hand, reiterated the need for an agreement with guarantees for the opposition and respect for the results of the presidential election. In Venezuela, as the days pass and the electoral campaign continues, marked by political persecution and irregularities by the government, as well as increasing pressure on the Maduro government, the government's attempts to have an election in which it can control the results or the consequences of the final numbers of the election are becoming evident, according to Alarcón. "In reality, what will characterize this process will be high participation, which could be over 70%, with the expectation that the opposition will win and the government will lose, and that the government will not respect the result. Those are the scenarios," added the director of Cepyg-UCAB. In January 1958, Venezuela experienced a transition through rupture, a type of political change that does not occur through negotiation, as explained by Alarcón, but rather is generated by events such as a coup d'état. "That could happen in Venezuela," says Alarcón. However, the director of Cepyg-UCAB emphasizes that the current circumstances in Venezuela indicate that the transition that could occur after July 28 will emerge from a mix of conflict and negotiation. "It is a transition in which the government realizes that it cannot win and negotiates its exit while maintaining power spaces that provide guarantees for survival. In Venezuela, there will not be a solely negotiated transition because the government shows no signs of wanting to negotiate and is betting on remaining in power by fair means or foul," explains Alarcón. Both González Urrutia and Machado have expressed their willingness to negotiate amid conflict and have highlighted the convenience of the government's power circle negotiating an orderly and peaceful transition. None of the scenarios so far imply an easy solution for the government, according to Carrasquero and Alarcón. In any authoritarian regime, ultimately facing the beginning of a transition, there are desires to maintain so-called authoritarian enclaves, domains, and guarantees. The challenge for the opposition lies in defining, among other things, what is most beneficial for the transition amid conflict and the demands of a coalition that, if it acknowledges its defeat, will persist in its demands. "The transition to democracy will be a complex matter. I estimate that Maduro will step down from power after July. The government will be handed over to a more or less neutral vice presidency, there will be talks from the Executive's point of view, but we must not forget that Chavismo will have one more year in the National Assembly, and hopefully there they will understand the need to facilitate processes for the transition," added Carrasquero. Forcing the start of a transition is not simple, and the Venezuelan opposition knows this from all the failures in recent years. However, if a transition through electoral means were to occur in Venezuela, the complexity would also lie in its consolidation and operation. "The difficulty of a transition comes after it begins. Achieving it is complex. Transitions sometimes occur due to unforeseeable events. Some governments fail in their attempts to consolidate the transition, as happened in Nicaragua, with Violeta Chamorro, and in Egypt, for example," emphasizes Alarcón. In that context, what situations will require more attention and what risks will need to be addressed in the face of a transitional government? "Maintaining a transitional government and consolidating democracy is not a short-term process, and people demand a lot from that new government in a short time. In addition, those leaving the government, actors with resources and power, wait for signs of weakness to act. The part that will not be easy is consolidating a transition process and keeping it functioning," added Alarcón. The role of the military sector, which is currently aligned with a political faction, outside of what the Constitution establishes, will be crucial, according to Carrasquero. "When talking about a transition, the first thing to consider is the military sector, with the role assigned by the Constitution: to serve the people. Remember that on July 28, it is not about one side winning and the other losing, but rather the people expressing an opinion and indicating the direction in which the country should be managed," emphasized the political scientist. Alarcón highlights three crucial aspects to pay attention to amidst the demands of a transitional government. "First, the state's capacity and responses to the population's demands. Second, a rule of law that enjoys legitimacy to have a legal framework that supports the entire process, including the judicial system and even modifying constitutional norms. And the third would be to rebuild the framework that sustains democracy: electoral processes, freedom of expression, association, among other things," detailed Alarcón. An element that will be pervasive in a hypothetical transitional government is related to human rights and justice, especially because in authoritarian regimes, one of the main demands from those in power circles involves judicial guarantees. In addition to the situation in Venezuela, there is an additional significant process: the case advancing in the International Criminal Court (ICC) and the investigation conducted by the ICC Prosecutor's Office for crimes against humanity. "Undoubtedly, there will be difficulties in the transition process. Transitional justice must be addressed. Reports of crimes against humanity, corruption cases, are highlighted elements that represent a significant challenge for those who will lead the entire process," emphasized Carrasquero. There is a consensus that processes related to justice and human rights violations are managed during transitional periods with a transitional justice system, and the use of amnesty is becoming less common, especially in the pillars of a transitional justice scheme: historical memory, truth, victim reparation, and non-repetition. Venezuela faces its most challenging political and electoral test in decades, with the consequences and implications that will arise from July 28. Expectations and uncertainties mix, but there are also certainties that mark the days ahead. "People have two very clear scenarios: that Edmundo González will win the election and that the government will do everything possible to remain in power," concluded Alarcón.