The Madden-Julian Oscillation challenge in Mexico: How to prepare for its impact?

Summer has arrived in Mexico, bringing not only high temperatures but also hurricane season and the possibility of drought decreasing in the country. However, this year an additional factor comes into play that could significantly alter the meteorological conditions in the region: the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). The MJO, also known as the Madden-Julian Oscillation, is a climatic phenomenon characterized by a wave of low pressure that travels around the world in a period of 30 to 60 days. This phenomenon can have a significant impact on both the ocean and the atmosphere, influencing the development of storms and tropical cyclones. According to explanations from the Government of Mexico, the MJO has two distinct phases: the active convective phase and the suppressed convective phase. The active convective phase is characterized by the production of a greater amount of rainfall, which can favor the rapid development of intense storms and tropical cyclones. In contrast, the suppressed convective phase is associated with decreased cloudiness and rainfall activity, which can influence phenomena like El Niño and La Niña, as well as the dissipation of clouds. In the case of Mexico, it is expected that the MJO will mainly impact the active convective phase, which could result in an increase in tropical cyclone activity over the Pacific Ocean in the coming weeks. With the arrival of the MJO in Mexico, it is important for the population to be prepared to face the possible impacts that this phenomenon may have on the country. From constant monitoring of weather forecasts to preparation for extreme weather conditions, it is essential to take the necessary measures to ensure the safety and well-being of the population. In this regard, it is recommended to stay informed about updates from the local meteorological service and international organizations like NOAA, which monitor the MJO. Additionally, it is important to prepare for possible floods, storms, and hurricanes by having emergency kits with basic supplies on hand and following the instructions of local authorities in case of evacuation. For farmers, it is crucial to consider medium-term climate predictions to plan their agricultural activities, as excessive rainfall or drought can have a significant impact on crops. Furthermore, attention should be paid to health, especially regarding waterborne diseases and temperature fluctuations that can affect vulnerable individuals. Ultimately, long-term preparation and mitigation are key to facing the potential impacts of the MJO in Mexico. Investing in resilient infrastructure, participating in education and training programs on extreme weather events, and staying informed are fundamental actions to effectively address this phenomenon and its consequences in the region.