IMF projects global economic growth of 3.2% in 2024

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has published its World Economic Outlook (WEO) Update report, projecting global economic growth of 3.2% in 2024 and 3.3% in 2025. These figures, although in line with previous projections, reveal a gradual recovery in global economic activity, despite initial divergences among economies due to cyclical factors and adjustments in economic activity. According to the report, global activity and international trade have strengthened in the first quarter of the year, particularly driven by Asian exports, especially in the technology sector. Despite some negative surprises in countries like Japan and the United States, the overall trend has been positive, with economic recovery sprouts in Europe and renewed momentum in China thanks to domestic consumption and a temporary increase in exports. Regarding inflation, the report highlights that service price inflation remains a challenge, complicating monetary policy normalization and increasing the risk of higher inflation. This translates into the possibility of higher interest rates in a context of trade tensions and uncertainty regarding economic policies. In relation to advanced economies, convergence in growth is expected in the coming quarters. In the United States, a slowdown in growth is projected, while in the euro area, a moderate rebound is expected driven by the services sector and exports. In Japan, a positive change in the trend of private consumption is expected from the second half of 2024. For China, growth is projected to rise in 2024 and 2025, driven by private consumption and exports. On the other hand, revisions have been made both upward and downward in growth projections for countries like Brazil and Mexico in Latin America and the Caribbean, reflecting the diversity of economic situations in the region. In terms of international trade, the IMF report predicts a recovery in trade growth, aligning with global GDP growth in the coming years. This suggests an improvement in global trade conditions, which could boost economic activity and contribute to post-pandemic recovery. In summary, the IMF report offers a balanced view of the global economic situation, highlighting both challenges and opportunities in a context of gradual recovery. Convergence in growth among advanced economies, momentum in international trade, and favorable prospects for certain regions point to a scenario of sustained recovery in the coming years, although with certain risks and uncertainties that should be closely monitored by global economic authorities.