Juan Brignardello Vela
Juan Brignardello, asesor de seguros, se especializa en brindar asesoramiento y gestión comercial en el ámbito de seguros y reclamaciones por siniestros para destacadas empresas en el mercado peruano e internacional.
The recent blackout that affected several states in Venezuela has reignited the debate over the security and modernization of the country's electrical infrastructure. In a statement during a national broadcast, President Nicolás Maduro attributed the cause of the blackout to a "cyberattack" on the Guri hydroelectric plant, one of the most important in the nation. However, experts in the field have questioned the veracity of this claim and pointed out that there are deeper issues that require urgent attention. Electrical engineer Paulo de Oliveira, an associate professor at the University of the Andes, dismisses the possibility of electronic sabotage, noting that Guri's Master Scada Station, considered the "brain" of the facility, is an analog system. According to Oliveira, this type of technology is less susceptible to modern cyberattacks, as it is not connected to the internet and access is restricted by strict police control. Alongside Oliveira, other specialists such as José Aguilar also believe that the blackout cannot be attributed to sabotage but is rather a reflection of the obsolete state of the national electrical system. "The underlying problem is that the system is outdated; it has reached the end of its useful life," emphasizes Oliveira. This system, which has been in operation for over 40 years, has ceased to be viable due to the lack of a modernization process that should have been implemented more than two decades ago. One of the reasons behind the stagnation in the modernization of Guri is the economic problems facing the country. The difficulty in paying contractor companies and corruption in the procurement of equipment have hindered progress. Additionally, the international sanctions imposed on Venezuela further complicate the situation, making it harder to contract new services and access the technology needed to update the infrastructure. De Oliveira recalls that in 2005, during Hugo Chávez's presidency, a modernization project for Guri's Machine House 1 and 2 was proposed with the Canadian company ABB. This contract, which promised to extend the plant's lifespan by another 30 years, was not finalized due to lack of payments and political will to carry out the modernization. The opacity of the Venezuelan government in investigations into electrical failures is also a concern for experts. Oliveira points out that it is essential to conduct transparent investigations to identify the causes of blackouts and failures in the system. However, the lack of clarity in government communication has created an atmosphere of distrust, where the true reasons behind the electrical problems remain inadequately addressed. Regarding Guri's generation infrastructure, Oliveira explains that there are two components that must be considered: the rotating equipment, which consists of the turbines, and the control system, which needs modernization. The inability to access updated technology due to sanctions has left the plant in a critical situation, relying on equipment that has not been renewed in decades. The deterioration of the system affects not only Guri but also the thermoelectric plants operating in the country. Of the 20 existing plants, few are operational, further complicating the stability of the electricity supply. If Guri suffers a shutdown, the lack of adequate backup from the thermoelectric plants could lead to an even more severe crisis. Another aspect that worsens the situation is the decrease in the qualified human resources needed to operate the electrical system. Oliveira highlights that the lack of technicians knowledgeable about the electrical system, which is unique in the region, has left Venezuela in a vulnerable position. Sanctions and the lack of resources have led to considerable depopulation in the sector. Finally, it is evident that the solution to Venezuela's electrical problems does not lie in accusations of sabotage but rather in a critical and constructive approach that addresses the structural deficiencies of the system. Modernizing the electrical infrastructure must be a priority if we are to avoid blackouts like the one on August 30 from recurring in the future. However, until geopolitical issues are resolved and sanctions are lifted, the country's electrical future remains uncertain and full of challenges.